Category: prediction

• Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths with uncertainties

  American Statistical Association . Andrew Harvey . anomaly detection . count data regression . COVID-19 . dependent data . dlm package . Durbin and Koopman . dynamic linear models . epidemiology . filtering . forecasting . Kalman filter . LaTeX . model-free forecasting . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . numerical algorithms . numerical linear algebra . population biology . population dynamics . prediction . R . R statistical programming language . regression . statistical learning . stochastic algorithms

  Oct 30.2020
• Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

  bridge to somewhere . Calculus . dependent data . dynamic generalized linear models . dynamical systems . ensemble methods . ensemble models . filtering . forecasting . hierarchical clustering . linear regression . model-free forecasting . Monte Carlo Statistical Methods . non-mechanistic modeling . non-parametric model . non-parametric statistics . numerical algorithms . prediction . R statistical programming language . random forests . regression . sampling . splines . statistical learning . statistical series . statistics . time derivatives . time series

  Jun 27.2020
• “Code for causal inference: Interested in astronomical applications”

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Statistical Association . astronomy . astrostatistics . causal inference . causation . counterfactuals . epidemiology . experimental design . experimental science . multivariate statistics . prediction . propensity scoring . quantitative biology . quantitative ecology . reproducible research . rhetorical mathematics . rhetorical science . rhetorical statistics . science . statistical ecology . statistical models . statistical regression . statistics

  Feb 21.2020
• A look at an electricity consumption series using SNCDs for clustering

  American Statistical Association . consumption . data streams . decentralized electric power generation . dendrogram . divergence measures . efficiency . electricity . electricity markets . energy efficiency . energy utilities . ensembles . evidence . forecasting . grid defection . hierarchical clustering . hydrology . ILSR . information theoretic statistics . local self reliance . Massachusetts . microgrids . NCD . normalized compression divergence . numerical software . open data . prediction . rate of return regulation . Sankey diagram . SNCD . statistical dependence . statistical series . statistics . sustainability . symmetric normalized compression divergence . time series

  Jan 11.2019
• Sea-level report cards, contingency upon model character, and ensemble methods

  adaptation . American Association for the Advancement of Science . American Meteorological Association . American Statistical Association . AMETSOC . anomaly detection . Bayesian model averaging . changepoint detection . climate disruption . climate economics . climate education . coastal communities . coasts . dynamical systems . ensemble methods . ensemble models . flooding . geophysics . global warming . Grant Foster . Hyper Anthropocene . ice sheet dynamics . icesheets . living shorelines . meteorological models . nonlinear systems . prediction . sea level rise . shorelines . Skeptical Science . spaghetti plots . temporal myopia . the right to be and act stupid . the right to know . the value of financial assets . tragedy of the horizon

  Mar 13.2018
• Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION: A Review

  citizen data . citizen science . citizenship . civilization . compassion . complex systems . criminal justice . Daniel Kahneman . data science . deep recurrent neural networks . destructive economic development . economics . education . engineering . ethics . Google . ignorance . Joseph Schumpeter . life purpose . machine learning . Mathbabe . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . model comparison . model-free forecasting . numerical analysis . numerical software . open data . optimization . organizational failures . planning . politics . prediction . prediction markets . privacy . rationality . reason . reasonableness . risk . silly tech devices . smart data . sociology . Techno Utopias . testing . the value of financial assets . transparency

  Oct 23.2016
• “Holy crap – an actual book!”

  American Association for the Advancement of Science . Buckminster Fuller . business . citizen science . citizenship . civilization . complex systems . confirmation bias . data science . data streams . deep recurrent neural networks . denial . economics . education . engineering . ethics . evidence . Internet . investing . life purpose . machine learning . mathematical publishing . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . moral leadership . multivariate statistics . numerical software . numerics . obfuscating data . organizational failures . politics . population biology . prediction . prediction markets . privacy . quantitative biology . quantitative ecology . rationality . reason . reasonableness . rhetoric . risk . Schnabel census . smart data . sociology . statistical dependence . statistics . the right to be and act stupid . the right to know . the value of financial assets . transparency . UU Humanists

  Aug 10.2016
• On Munshi mush

  Bayes . Bayesian . Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project . BEST . carbon dioxide . cat1 . climate . climate change . climate data . climate education . climate models . convergent cross-mapping . dynamic linear models . ecology . ENSO . environment . Ethan Deyle . evidence . geophysics . George Sughihara . global warming . greenhouse gases . information theoretic statistics . Kalman filter . mathematics . maths . meteorology . model comparison . NOAA . oceanography . prediction . state-space models . statistics . Takens embedding theorem . Techno Utopias . the right to know . theoretical physics . time series . zero carbon

  Jun 5.2016
• Where’s NY-REV today?

  adaptation . Anthropocene . Bloomberg New Energy Finance . BNEF . bridge to somewhere . Buckminster Fuller . citizenship . civilization . clean disruption . climate change . climate disruption . conservation . consumption . corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . distributed generation . Ecology Action . efficiency . EIA . electricity . electricity markets . energy . energy reduction . energy storage . energy utilities . feed-in tariff . fossil fuel divestment . global warming . Green Tea Coalition . greenhouse gases . grid defection . Hermann Scheer . Hyper Anthropocene . investment in wind and solar energy . ISO-NE . leaving fossil fuels in the ground . Life Cycle Assessment . local generation . long-term contract for differences . marginal energy sources . Mark Jacobson . microgrids . mitigation . optimization . planning . prediction . public utility commissions . PUCs . rate of return regulation . rationality . reasonableness . regulatory capture . RevoluSun . risk . Sankey diagram . solar domination . solar energy . Solar Freakin’ Roadways . solar power . SolarPV.tv . Spaceship Earth . stranded assets . sustainability . the energy of the people . the green century . the value of financial assets . Tony Seba . utility company death spiral . wind energy . wind power . zero carbon

  May 23.2016
• Boston, are you ready?

  adaptation . AMETSOC . Anthropocene . bollocks . Boston . bridge to nowhere . carbon dioxide . Carbon Worshipers . climate change . climate disruption . corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions . corruption . disingenuity . ecology . evidence . false advertising . floods . Florida . fossil fuel divestment . fossil fuels . fracking . geophysics . global warming . greenwashing . Hyper Anthropocene . MA . Massachusetts . methane . mitigation . natural gas . NOAA . nor’easters . physics . pipelines . prediction . rate of return regulation . rationality . reasonableness . regulatory capture . science . sea level rise . sustainability . the right to be and act stupid . the right to know . the tragedy of our present civilization . utility company death spiral

  Apr 25.2016
• “What’s the deal with sea level rise?”

  adaptation . AMOC . Antarctica . Anthropocene . Arctic . Carbon Worshipers . civilization . dynamical systems . Eaarth . geophysics . glaciers . glaciology . global warming . Guy McPherson . Hyper Anthropocene . ice sheet dynamics . James Hansen . oceanography . physics . planning . prediction . Principles of Planetary Climate . regime shifts . risk . science . sea level rise . the tragedy of our present civilization . thermohaline circulation . Wally Broecker

  Mar 22.2016
• HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP series filtered and estimated with simple RTS model

  AMETSOC . anemic data . Bayesian . boosting . bridge to somewhere . cat1 . changepoint detection . climate . climate change . climate data . climate disruption . climate models . complex systems . computation . data science . dynamical systems . geophysics . George Sughihara . global warming . hiatus . information theoretic statistics . machine learning . maths . meteorology . MIchael Mann . multivariate statistics . physics . prediction . Principles of Planetary Climate . rationality . reasonableness . regime shifts . sea level rise . time series

  Mar 18.2016
• Causal Diagrams

  adaptation . bridge to nowhere . Carbon Cycle . carbon dioxide . carbon dioxide sequestration . Carbon Tax . Carbon Worshipers . causal diagrams . clean disruption . climate . climate change . climate disruption . climate education . climate models . demand-side solutions . differential equations . dynamical systems . ecology . economics . energy utilities . environment . exponential growth . fossil fuel divestment . fossil fuels . global warming . greenhouse gases . greenwashing . Hyper Anthropocene . mathematics . mathematics education . maths . methane . mitigation . natural gas . planning . prediction . rationality . reasonableness . recycling . Sankey diagram . sustainability . the right to know . zero carbon

  Jan 31.2016
• All I do is complain, complain …

  bifurcations . chaos . citizen science . convergent cross-mapping . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . engineering . Floris Takens . generalized linear models . geophysics . George Sughihara . ignorance . Lenny Smith . Lorenz . mathematics . maths . meteorology . prediction . probability . rationality . reasonableness . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . stochastics . Takens embedding theorem . the right to know . time series

  Dec 23.2015
• Wind and Solar are Cheaper than Fossil Fuels and Nuclear Right Now

  bifurcations . Cape Wind . Carbon Worshipers . clean disruption . conservation . consumption . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . destructive economic development . economics . efficiency . EIA . energy . energy reduction . energy utilities . engineering . fossil fuel divestment . fossil fuels . investing . investment in wind and solar energy . methane . microgrids . natural gas . nuclear power . open data . pipelines . politics . prediction . public utility commissions . PUCs . Sankey diagram . solar energy . solar power . SolarPV.tv . sustainability . temporal myopia . the value of financial assets . Tony Seba . wind energy . wind power

  Dec 11.2015
• sonnenCommunity connects households and makes conventional electricity suppliers obsolete through self-generated power

  Anthropocene . Bill Gates . carbon dioxide . Carbon Worshipers . clean disruption . climate disruption . conservation . consumption . COP21 . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . economics . energy . energy reduction . energy utilities . engineering . environment . fossil fuel divestment . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . investment in wind and solar energy . mesh models . meteorology . microgrids . planning . prediction . solar energy . solar power . SolarPV.tv . sustainability . Tony Seba . wind energy . zero carbon

  Nov 30.2015
• What the future of energy everywhere looks like

  adaptation . Anthropocene . capricious gods . chance . citizenship . civilization . clean disruption . conservation . consumption . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . destructive economic development . dynamical systems . economics . efficiency . energy . energy reduction . energy utilities . engineering . environment . ethics . forecasting . fossil fuel divestment . geophysics . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . investment in wind and solar energy . living shorelines . mesh models . meteorology . microgrids . mitigation . obfuscating data . oceanography . physical materialism . physics . pipelines . planning . politics . prediction . probabilistic programming . public utility commissions . PUCs . quantum . reasonableness . reproducible research . risk . Sankey diagram . science . sea level rise . selfishness . solar energy . solar power . SolarPV.tv . Spaceship Earth . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastics . Svante Arrhenius . taxes . temporal myopia . the right to know . the value of financial assets . transparency . UU Humanists . WHOI . wind energy . wind power . zero carbon

  Nov 2.2015
• New York State eliminates caps on solar net metering

  citizenship . civilization . clean disruption . climate change . climate education . consumption . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . destructive economic development . economics . efficiency . energy . energy utilities . environment . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . investing . investment in wind and solar energy . meteorology . microgrids . prediction . public utility commissions . PUCs . rationality . reasonableness . solar energy . solar power . SolarPV.tv . sustainability . Tony Seba . wind energy . wind power . zero carbon

  Oct 31.2015
• Kerry Emanuel and Svante Arrhenius, hurricanes and climate disruption: A 2015 update

  Anthropocene . carbon dioxide . climate . climate change . climate disruption . geophysics . global warming . hurricanes . Kerry Emanuel . meteorology . oceanography . physics . prediction . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . sea level rise . sustainability . Svante Arrhenius

  Oct 27.2015
• New Study Projects That Melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves Will Intensify

  Anthropocene . capricious gods . carbon dioxide . civilization . climate . climate disruption . ecology . exponential growth . geophysics . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . icesheets . James Hansen . meteorology . NASA . NOAA . oceanography . physics . prediction . risk . science . sea level rise . sustainability . temporal myopia . WAIS . WHOI

  Oct 13.2015
• On differential localization of tumors using relative concentrations of ctDNA. Part 1.

  approximate Bayesian computation . Bayesian . Bayesian inversion . cardiovascular system . diffusion . dynamic linear models . eigenanalysis . engineering . forecasting . mathematics . maths . medicine . networks . prediction . spatial statistics . statistics . stochastic algorithms . stochastic search . wave equations

  Oct 11.2015
• How nice it is that Nature and probability bend to developers whims!

  capricious gods . chance . citizenship . climate data . conservation . denial . ecology . engineering . environment . ethics . games of chance . ignorance . living shorelines . mathematics . meteorology . obfuscating data . planning . politics . precipitation . prediction . probability . rationality . reasonableness . risk . spatial statistics . University Station . Westwood

  Oct 10.2015
• News Flash: “Warmer climate on the Earth may be due to more Carbon Dioxide in the air”

  Anthropocene . astrophysics . carbon dioxide . citizenship . climate disruption . compassion . denial . disingenuity . ecology . environment . forecasting . geophysics . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . IPCC . physics . prediction . Principles of Planetary Climate . rationality . Ray Pierrehumbert . reasonableness . science . zero carbon

  Oct 10.2015
• “Too late to prevent climate change: Here’s how we adapt” (Alice Bows-Larkin)

  adaptation . Anthropocene . astrophysics . bridge to nowhere . capricious gods . carbon dioxide . chance . citizenship . civilization . climate . climate change . climate disruption . climate education . ecology . economics . environment . ethics . forecasting . fossil fuels . games of chance . geophysics . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . ignorance . mathematics . maths . meteorology . mitigation . oceanography . physics . planning . prediction . probability . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . statistics . sustainability . zero carbon

  Oct 7.2015
• Incredible Rainfall In South Carolina, and Yes Climate Played A Role – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

  adaptation . Anthropocene . carbon dioxide . citizenship . civilization . climate change . climate disruption . Dan Satterfield . environment . forecasting . geophysics . global warming . hurricanes . Hyper Anthropocene . ignorance . IPCC . James Hansen . maths . meteorology . mitigation . NOAA . oceanography . physics . prediction . Principles of Planetary Climate . probability . rationality . Ray Pierrehumbert . reasonableness . science . science education . spatial statistics . statistics . sustainability . Tamino . the right to know . zero carbon

  Oct 5.2015
• Questions About El Nino Answered – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

  bifurcations . capricious gods . chance . climate change . Dan Satterfield . ensembles . ENSO . games of chance . maths . meteorology . NOAA . nor’easters . oceanography . precipitation . prediction . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . spatial statistics

  Sep 10.2015
• Solar array with cloud predicting technology launched in WA

  adaptation . Anthropocene . carbon dioxide . citizenship . civilization . clean disruption . climate . climate change . climate disruption . conservation . consumption . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . dynamic linear models . efficiency . energy . energy reduction . energy utilities . engineering . environment . ethics . forecasting . geophysics . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . investment in wind and solar energy . Kalman filter . mathematics . maths . meteorology . microgrids . mitigation . NCAR . numerical software . optimization . physics . prediction . probabilistic programming . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . solar power . stochastics . sustainability . time series

  Aug 31.2015
• Locally generated solar PV will destroy America’s electric utilities: Barclays

  adaptation . Anthropocene . bridge to nowhere . Cape Wind . carbon dioxide . citizenship . clean disruption . climate . climate change . climate disruption . compassion . conservation . consumption . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . destructive economic development . dynamical systems . economics . efficiency . energy . energy reduction . energy utilities . engineering . environment . ethics . exponential growth . forecasting . fossil fuel divestment . fossil fuels . geophysics . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . investing . investment in wind and solar energy . meteorology . microgrids . physics . prediction . public utility commissions . PUCs . rationality . reasonableness . risk . solar power . statistics . Tony Seba . wind power . zero carbon

  Aug 26.2015
• “Allocating a 2° C cumulative carbon budget to countries”: Gignac and Matthews

  adaptation . Anthropocene . Boston Ethical Society . bridge to nowhere . carbon dioxide . Carbon Tax . chance . chemistry . citizen science . citizenship . civilization . clean disruption . climate . climate change . climate disruption . climate education . climate justice . compassion . conservation . consumption . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . destructive economic development . ecology . education . energy . energy reduction . environment . ethics . forecasting . fossil fuel divestment . fossil fuels . geophysics . global warming . humanism . Hyper Anthropocene . ignorance . investment in wind and solar energy . IPCC . meteorology . mitigation . open source scientific software . physical materialism . physics . population biology . prediction . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . science education . scientific publishing . sociology . solar power . sustainability . temporal myopia . the right to know . time series . UNFCCC . UU Humanists . wind power

  Aug 10.2015
• Utilities for dummies: How they work and why that needs to change (from grist.org)

  Anthropocene . bifurcations . bridge to nowhere . carbon dioxide . citizenship . civilization . clean disruption . climate . climate change . climate disruption . climate education . conservation . consumption . corruption . decentralized electric power generation . decentralized energy . demand-side solutions . destructive economic development . disingenuity . dynamic linear models . dynamical systems . ecology . economics . education . efficiency . energy . energy reduction . energy utilities . engineering . environment . ethics . exponential growth . finance . forecasting . fossil fuel divestment . fossil fuels . fracking . global warming . Hyper Anthropocene . ignorance . investing . investment in wind and solar energy . mathematics . maths . meteorology . methane . microgrids . natural gas . optimization . physics . pipelines . politics . prediction . public utility commissions . PUCs . rationality . reasonableness . risk . science . solar power . statistics . sustainability . taxes . temporal myopia . the right to know . time series . Tony Seba . wind power . zero carbon

  Aug 10.2015