### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Label Noise
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- James' Empty Blog
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Gabriel's staircase
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Slice Sampling
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Gavin Simpson
- Karl Broman
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- American Statistical Association
- Ted Dunning

### climate change

- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Reanalyses.org
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Risk and Well-Being
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Skeptical Science
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Simple models of climate change
- Ice and Snow
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- weather blocking patterns
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- The Sunlight Economy
- Earth System Models
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: regression

## Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths *with uncertainties*

I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Harvey, anomaly detection, count data regression, COVID-19, dependent data, dlm package, Durbin and Koopman, dynamic linear models, epidemiology, filtering, forecasting, Kalman filter, LaTeX, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical algorithms, numerical linear algebra, population biology, population dynamics, prediction, R, R statistical programming language, regression, statistical learning, stochastic algorithms
Tagged prediction intervals
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## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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## New *COVID-19* incidence in the United States as AR(1) processes

There are several sources of information regarding Covid-19 incidence now available. This post uses data from a single source: the COVID Tracking Project. In particular I restrict attention to cumulative daily case counts for the United States, the UK, and … Continue reading

Posted in coronavirus, COVID-19, epidemiology, pandemic, regression, SARS-CoV-2
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