### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Mertonian norms
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Slice Sampling
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Professor David Draper
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Label Noise
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Awkward Botany
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Risk and Well-Being
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- What If
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs

### climate change

- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- SolarLove
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- weather blocking patterns
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Skeptical Science
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- Climate model projections versus observations
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: filtering

## Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths *with uncertainties*

I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Harvey, anomaly detection, count data regression, COVID-19, dependent data, dlm package, Durbin and Koopman, dynamic linear models, epidemiology, filtering, forecasting, Kalman filter, LaTeX, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical algorithms, numerical linear algebra, population biology, population dynamics, prediction, R, R statistical programming language, regression, statistical learning, stochastic algorithms
Tagged prediction intervals
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## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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