### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Risk and Well-Being
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- What If
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Gavin Simpson
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Awkward Botany
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Professor David Draper
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- "The Expert"
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Earle Wilson
- James' Empty Blog
- Label Noise
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition

### climate change

- MIT's Climate Primer
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Simple models of climate change
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- weather blocking patterns
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Earth System Models
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- RealClimate
- Risk and Well-Being
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- World Weather Attribution
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Sea Change Boston
- Social Cost of Carbon
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- The Sunlight Economy
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: filtering

## Phase Plane plots of COVID-19 deaths *with uncertainties*

I. Introduction. It’s time to fulfill the promise made in “Phase plane plots of COVID-19 deaths“, a blog post from 2nd May 2020, and produce the same with uncertainty clouds about the functional trajectories(*). To begin, here are some assumptions … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, Andrew Harvey, anomaly detection, count data regression, COVID-19, dependent data, dlm package, Durbin and Koopman, dynamic linear models, epidemiology, filtering, forecasting, Kalman filter, LaTeX, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, numerical algorithms, numerical linear algebra, population biology, population dynamics, prediction, R, R statistical programming language, regression, statistical learning, stochastic algorithms
Tagged prediction intervals
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## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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