Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- American Statistical Association
- NCAR AtmosNews
- All about models
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Earle Wilson
- "The Expert"
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- James' Empty Blog
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- London Review of Books
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Karl Broman
- Risk and Well-Being
- What If
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Mertonian norms
- Awkward Botany
- Gabriel's staircase
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Ted Dunning
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Harvard's Project Implicit
climate change
- weather blocking patterns
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Ice and Snow
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Spectra Energy exposed
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Skeptical Science
- SolarLove
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Earth System Models
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- The Sunlight Economy
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Simple models of climate change
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: multivariate adaptive regression splines
climate model democracy
“One of the most interesting things about the MIP ensembles is that the mean of all the models generally has higher skill than any individual model.” We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all models are created equal, that … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, attribution, Bayesian model averaging, Bloomberg, citizen science, climate, climate business, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate justice, Climate Lab Book, climate models, coastal communities, coastal investment risks, complex systems, differential equations, disruption, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ecology, emergent organization, ensemble methods, ensemble models, ensembles, Eric Rignot, evidence, fear uncertainty and doubt, FEMA, forecasting, free flow of labor, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, Jennifer Francis, Joe Romm, Kevin Anderson, Lévy flights, LBNL, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, liberal climate deniers, mathematics, mathematics education, model-free forecasting, multivariate adaptive regression splines, National Center for Atmospheric Research, obfuscating data, oceanography, open source scientific software, optimization, perceptrons, philosophy of science, phytoplankton
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Why smooth?
I’ve encountered a number of blog posts this week which seem not to understand the Bias-Variance Tradeoff in regard to Mean-Squared-Error. These arose in connection with smoothing splines, which I was studying in connection with multivariate adaptive regression splines, that … Continue reading
Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, American Statistical Association, Antarctica, carbon dioxide, climate change, denial, global warming, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, multivariate adaptive regression splines, non-parametric model, science denier, smoothing, splines, statistical dependence
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ecoquant
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy 