Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Gavin Simpson
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- James' Empty Blog
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Gabriel's staircase
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Ted Dunning
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Awkward Botany
- American Statistical Association
- Earle Wilson
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Mertonian norms
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- All about models
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- London Review of Books
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
climate change
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- RealClimate
- Risk and Well-Being
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- The Sunlight Economy
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- World Weather Attribution
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Climate model projections versus observations
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Ice and Snow
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- SolarLove
- Reanalyses.org
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- weather blocking patterns
- Warming slowdown discussion
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: ensemble models
Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests
(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading
Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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climate model democracy
“One of the most interesting things about the MIP ensembles is that the mean of all the models generally has higher skill than any individual model.” We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all models are created equal, that … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, attribution, Bayesian model averaging, Bloomberg, citizen science, climate, climate business, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate justice, Climate Lab Book, climate models, coastal communities, coastal investment risks, complex systems, differential equations, disruption, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ecology, emergent organization, ensemble methods, ensemble models, ensembles, Eric Rignot, evidence, fear uncertainty and doubt, FEMA, forecasting, free flow of labor, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, Jennifer Francis, Joe Romm, Kevin Anderson, Lévy flights, LBNL, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, liberal climate deniers, mathematics, mathematics education, model-free forecasting, multivariate adaptive regression splines, National Center for Atmospheric Research, obfuscating data, oceanography, open source scientific software, optimization, perceptrons, philosophy of science, phytoplankton
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forecast for 27th March 2018
Today is the 21st of March, 2018. We are supposed to get our fourth nor’easter tomorrow this late Winter, and the third nor’easter in nearly as many weeks. ECMWF hosted, in this incarnation, at the Meteocentre UQAM in Montreal created … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, atmosphere, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, coastal communities, ensemble methods, ensemble models, fluid dynamics, forecasting, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, meteorological models, meteorology, numerical algorithms, physics, science, science education, spaghetti plots, tragedy of the horizon, water vapor
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Sea-level report cards, contingency upon model character, and ensemble methods
Done by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, new sea-level report cards offer a look at current sea-level rise rates, and projections. What’s interesting to me is making the projections conditional upon the character of the model used to project. … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Bayesian model averaging, changepoint detection, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, coastal communities, coasts, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, flooding, geophysics, global warming, Grant Foster, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, icesheets, living shorelines, meteorological models, nonlinear systems, prediction, sea level rise, shorelines, Skeptical Science, spaghetti plots, temporal myopia, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon
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‘Nuf said: Ensembles as descriptions of Bayesian space-time posterior densities
(UPDATED, 2017-09-09, 12:38 EDT) Click here to see just the latest update. An exercise in the appreciation of ensemble models. By the way, many of these charts were obtained courtesy of my subscription at Weather Underground. They are, as far … Continue reading
ecoquant
