Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Mertonian norms
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Ted Dunning
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- James' Empty Blog
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Gavin Simpson
- Professor David Draper
- Awkward Botany
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Earle Wilson
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- What If
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- American Statistical Association
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Risk and Well-Being
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
climate change
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- weather blocking patterns
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Climate model projections versus observations
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- The Sunlight Economy
- Simple models of climate change
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- SolarLove
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- David Appell's early climate science
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Risk and Well-Being
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Sea Change Boston
- Skeptical Science
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: ensemble models
Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests
(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading
Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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climate model democracy
“One of the most interesting things about the MIP ensembles is that the mean of all the models generally has higher skill than any individual model.” We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all models are created equal, that … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, attribution, Bayesian model averaging, Bloomberg, citizen science, climate, climate business, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate justice, Climate Lab Book, climate models, coastal communities, coastal investment risks, complex systems, differential equations, disruption, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, ecology, emergent organization, ensemble methods, ensemble models, ensembles, Eric Rignot, evidence, fear uncertainty and doubt, FEMA, forecasting, free flow of labor, global warming, greenhouse gases, greenwashing, Humans have a lot to answer for, Hyper Anthropocene, Jennifer Francis, Joe Romm, Kevin Anderson, Lévy flights, LBNL, leaving fossil fuels in the ground, liberal climate deniers, mathematics, mathematics education, model-free forecasting, multivariate adaptive regression splines, National Center for Atmospheric Research, obfuscating data, oceanography, open source scientific software, optimization, perceptrons, philosophy of science, phytoplankton
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forecast for 27th March 2018
Today is the 21st of March, 2018. We are supposed to get our fourth nor’easter tomorrow this late Winter, and the third nor’easter in nearly as many weeks. ECMWF hosted, in this incarnation, at the Meteocentre UQAM in Montreal created … Continue reading
Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, atmosphere, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, coastal communities, ensemble methods, ensemble models, fluid dynamics, forecasting, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, meteorological models, meteorology, numerical algorithms, physics, science, science education, spaghetti plots, tragedy of the horizon, water vapor
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Sea-level report cards, contingency upon model character, and ensemble methods
Done by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, new sea-level report cards offer a look at current sea-level rise rates, and projections. What’s interesting to me is making the projections conditional upon the character of the model used to project. … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, anomaly detection, Bayesian model averaging, changepoint detection, climate disruption, climate economics, climate education, coastal communities, coasts, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, flooding, geophysics, global warming, Grant Foster, Hyper Anthropocene, ice sheet dynamics, icesheets, living shorelines, meteorological models, nonlinear systems, prediction, sea level rise, shorelines, Skeptical Science, spaghetti plots, temporal myopia, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the value of financial assets, tragedy of the horizon
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‘Nuf said: Ensembles as descriptions of Bayesian space-time posterior densities
(UPDATED, 2017-09-09, 12:38 EDT) Click here to see just the latest update. An exercise in the appreciation of ensemble models. By the way, many of these charts were obtained courtesy of my subscription at Weather Underground. They are, as far … Continue reading
ecoquant
667 per centimeter : climate science, quantitative biology, statistics, and energy policy 