### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- NCAR AtmosNews
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Slice Sampling
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- What If
- Gavin Simpson
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Label Noise
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Gabriel's staircase
- Ted Dunning
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule

### climate change

- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Sea Change Boston
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- World Weather Attribution
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- RealClimate
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Risk and Well-Being
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Reanalyses.org
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- SolarLove
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: likelihood-free

*cdetools* package for **R**: Dalmasso, *et al* [updated]

Just hit the “arXiv streets”: N. Dalmasso, T. Pospisil, A. B. Lee, R. Izbicki, P. E. Freeman, A. I. Malz, “Conditional Density Estimation Tools in Python and R with applications to photometric redshifts and likelihood-free cosmological inference”, arXiv.org > astro-ph … Continue reading

## Stream flow and P-splines: Using built-in estimates for smoothing

Mother Brook in Dedham Massachusetts was the first man-made canal in the United States. Dug in 1639, it connects the Charles River at Dedham, to the Neponset River in the Hyde Park section of Boston. It was originally an important … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, citizen data, citizen science, Clausius-Clapeyron equation, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, cross-validation, data science, dependent data, descriptive statistics, dynamic linear models, empirical likelihood, environment, flooding, floods, Grant Foster, hydrology, likelihood-free, meteorological models, model-free forecasting, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, precipitation, quantitative ecology, statistical dependence, statistical series, stream flow, Tamino, the bootstrap, time series, water vapor
2 Comments

## Series, symmetrized Normalized Compressed Divergences and their logit transforms

(Major update on 11th January 2019. Minor update on 16th January 2019.) On comparing things The idea of a calculating a distance between series for various purposes has received scholarly attention for quite some time. The most common application is … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, bridge to somewhere, computation, content-free inference, data science, descriptive statistics, divergence measures, engineering, George Sughihara, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, machine learning, mathematics, model comparison, model-free forecasting, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series
4 Comments

## Why smooth?

I’ve encountered a number of blog posts this week which seem not to understand the Bias-Variance Tradeoff in regard to Mean-Squared-Error. These arose in connection with smoothing splines, which I was studying in connection with multivariate adaptive regression splines, that … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, American Statistical Association, Antarctica, carbon dioxide, climate change, denial, global warming, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, multivariate adaptive regression splines, non-parametric model, science denier, smoothing, splines, statistical dependence
1 Comment

## Cory Lesmeister’s treatment of Simson’s Paradox (at “Fear and Loathing in Data Science”)

(Updated 2016-05-08, to provide reference for plateaus of ML functions in vicinity of MLE.) Simpson’s Paradox is one of those phenomena of data which really give Statistics a substance and a role, beyond the roles it inherits from, say, theoretical … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, evidence, Frequentist, games of chance, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, likelihood-free, mathematics, maths, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, probabilistic programming, rationality, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, Simpson's Paradox, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics
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## p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule

The American Statistical Association of which I am a longtime member issued an important statement today which will hopefully move statistical practice in engineering and especially in the sciences away from the misleading practice of using p-values and hypothesis tests. … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, bollocks, Christian Robert, climate, complex systems, data science, Frequentist, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, science, scientific publishing, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics, Student t distribution
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## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## reblog: “Tiny Data, Approximate Bayesian Computation and the Socks of Karl Broman”

It’s Rasmus Bååth, in a post and video of which I am very fond: http://www.sumsar.net/blog/2014/10/tiny-data-and-the-socks-of-karl-broman/.