Category Archives: maths

Hope. This is why, in part, I am an atheist.

Carl Sagan’s last interview on Charlie Rose: The point is, how can any world view which is based upon either ignorance of, apathy towards, or misconception about the physical universe offer any realistic promise or hope or optimism, any more … Continue reading

Posted in astronomy, astrophysics, atheism, biology, Boston Ethical Society, Carl Sagan, citizenship, civilization, ecology, education, engineering, environment, geophysics, history, humanism, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NASA, Neill deGrasse Tyson, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science | Leave a comment

Dan Satterfield on Why and How Weather and Climate Models Work

See http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2014/08/10/weather-climate-models-work-meteorologists-learn-calculus/. 50 minute summary lecture there, by Professor Margot Gerritsen, embedded below, if you really want to know why and how. You, of course, don’t need to know. But, then, don’t criticize climate models, because you’ll be doing it … Continue reading

Posted in climate, climate education, differential equations, environment, forecasting, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, reasonableness, science, statistics | Leave a comment

True motives revealed: ‘The climate models are bad and don’t work; but let’s not try to improve them’

In a wholly cynical response on a tiny bit of the U.S. government’s budget, the Republican-dominated Congress has revealed the true motives of their financial backers: To hobble, delay, confuse, and force mismanagement of any government or academic or independent … Continue reading

Posted in carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, climate, climate education, economics, education, environment, forecasting, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science | Tagged | 1 Comment

Comment on “Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise” by Haigh, et al

Amended, 1st May 2014. The lead author, Dr Ivan Haigh, and I have had a very friendly discussion this paper and its context in detail. Now that I understand the context, and especially the atrocious maths of the Houston, Dean, … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, climate, forecasting, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, rationality, science, statistics, stochastic algorithms | 8 Comments

AAAS Message to Members: Climate Change

AAAS is the American Association for the Advancement of Science. They publish Science magazine and several other journals, and are considered in many ways the lead and integrated professional organization representing all sciences in the United States. Alan Leshner, CEO, … Continue reading

Posted in citizenship, civilization, climate, climate education, ecology, education, engineering, environment, forecasting, geoengineering, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, WHOI | Tagged | 1 Comment

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistical Truth – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistical Truth – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.

Posted in citizenship, climate, education, mathematics, maths, politics, risk, science, statistics | Leave a comment

“The most common fallacy in discussing extreme weather events”: Stefan Rahmstorf

The most common fallacy in discussing extreme weather events.

Posted in carbon dioxide, climate, climate education, forecasting, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, probabilistic programming, reasonableness, risk, science, statistics | Tagged | Leave a comment

Bayes vs the virial theorem

Bayes vs the virial theorem.

Posted in Bayesian, mathematics, maths, MCMC, reasonableness, science, statistics | 4 Comments

“On the Lyapunov function for complex-balanced mass-action systems”

“On the Lyapunov function for complex-balanced mass-action systems” Hat tip to the Azimuth Project and thanks to Manoj Gopalkrishnan for this interesting article.

Posted in chemistry, differential equations, engineering, mathematics, maths, physics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

“Data-driven science is a failure of imagination” (Petr Keil)

Happened across this today … I could not agree more: “Data-driven science is a failure of imagination” by Petr Keil. I look forward to reading his posts on Bayesian statistics.

Posted in Bayesian, engineering, history, mathematics, maths, MCMC, probabilistic programming, rationality, science | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Professor Ken Golden, sea ice and composites: “Just do the math” (National Science Foundation)

Posted in climate, climate education, environment, geophysics, mathematics, maths, physics, science, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

“Honestly, to a first approximation, this rock really is a black body.”

I gave a talk entitled “Long Choices: On Climate Change and Carbon Dioxide” yesterday afternoon at the Unitarian Universalist Area Church, First Parish, Sherborn, MA. My darling wife, Claire, snapped a number of, uh, entertaining photos. This is one I’ll … Continue reading

Posted in climate, climate education, education, environment, geophysics, maths, meteorology, physics, science, Unitarian Universalism | Tagged | 1 Comment

A trivariate, coupled dynamical system, and hints for using the carbon cycle to explain glacial-interglacial periods

I’m reading K. Soetaert, J. Cash, F. Mazzia, Solving Differential Equations in R. I know Professor Soetaert’s work, from the text co-authored with P. M. J. Herman, A Practical Guide to Ecological Modelling, and the several R packages he has contributed with others. … Continue reading

Posted in climate, climate education, differential equations, ecology, engineering, environment, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, oceanography, physics, science, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Maths and Science 2013: Reaction to Wilson and Frenkel

Famous Harvard biologist E. O. Wilson wrote a Wall Street Journal essay in April of this year downplaying the need to learn maths for scientists.  I suppose he wanted to start a lively conversation about the matter, but it it … Continue reading

Posted in education, mathematics, maths, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Lotka-Volterra systems and predator-prey relationships

Lotka-Volterra systems are one of the oldest and most fundamental mathematical renditions of ecological problems.  They are typically illustrated with predator-prey relationships, but I was introduced to them dealing with problems of competition for space by plants in niche ecological … Continue reading

Posted in biology, ecology, mathematics, maths, physics, science | Tagged | Leave a comment

postdoc position in Bayesian Climate Uncertainty Modeling

Climate Uncertainty Quantification Postdoc Where You Will Work Located in northern New Mexico, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is a multidisciplinary research institution engaged in strategic science on behalf of national security. LANL enhances national security by ensuring the safety … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, climate, environment, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, statistics, stochastic algorithms | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Another comment on RealClimate’s “Statistics and Climate”

See RealClimate‘s “Statistics and Climate“.  For some reason having to do with the mechanics of the site, the following comment was considered a “duplicate”. @tmb, The core of geostatistics is kriging, and it is a standard technique in much Oceanography, … Continue reading

Posted in climate, climate education, education, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, oceanography, science, statistics | Leave a comment

“Large Hadron Rap”

Continuing on with our music exploration of Higgs, hadrons, colliders, and detectors ….

Posted in mathematics, maths, music, physics, rationality, science | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Bayesian Bootstrap

I’m studying the Bayesian bootstrap in the context of finite population sampling for an application where I need to estimate multinomial proportions. While I have used the frequentist bootstrap a lot, it has bothered me that it can never, of … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, mathematics, maths, statistics, stochastic algorithms | 3 Comments

“Double Plus Big Data”

Big Data. All the rage. Why? Apart from distributed software folks strutting their stuff, something which is likely to be fleeting, especially when quantum computing comes around, what does it buy anyone? I can see four possibilities, which I consider … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, education, engineering, investing, mathematics, maths, notes, physics, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search | Leave a comment

“Extratropical storm inundation testbed: Inter-model comparisons in Scituate, Massachusetts”

A new paper, just out, by C. Chen, R. C. Beardsley , R. A Luettich Jr, J. J. Westerink, H. Wang, W. Perrie, Q. Xu, A. S. Donahue, J. Qi, H. Lin, L. Zhao, P. C. Kerr, Y. Meng, B. … Continue reading

Posted in climate, environment, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, oceanography, physics, science | Leave a comment

“p-values are random variables”

The title of this post is stolen from paper by Duncan Murdoch, Yu-Ling Tsai, and James Adcock which appeared in a 2008 issue of The American Statistician published by the American Statistical Association [August 2008, 62(3), 242-245]. Murdoch also has … Continue reading

Posted in climate, environment, geophysics, maths, statistics | 3 Comments

“Soon you will be one of us.”

I think the most entertaining introduction to Bayesian thought is provided by Eliezer Yudkowsky in his “An intuitive explanation of Bayes’ Theorem“. The new text, Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, by Professor John Kruschke comes close. But it’s a textbook and … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, maths, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, Unitarian Universalism | Leave a comment

“Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems”

Sugihara, May, Ye, Hsieh, Deyle, Fogarty, and Munch published what I consider to be a pretty interesting paper in Science called “Detecting causality in complex ecosystems”, linked: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1227079 http://www.uvm.edu/~cdanfort/csc-reading-group/sugihara-causality-science-2012.pdf Professor Andrew Gelman of Columbia seemed unimpressed by the article, and … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, biology, ecology, economics, engineering, maths, reasonableness, science, statistics | 2 Comments

The great Dennis Lindley, interviewed

Tony O’Hagan interviews the great D. V. Lindley on the history and emergence of modern Bayesian statistics. This is courtesy of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA). The Jimmy Savage Professor Lindley refers to was Leonard Jimmie Savage.

Posted in history, maths, rationality, statistics | Leave a comment

“Bayes’ theorem in the 21st century”

Professor Bradley Efron wrote a piece on “Bayes’ theorem in the 21st century” in Science for 7th June 2013 which, as always, offers his measured approach to the frequentist-Bayesian controversy (see B. Efron, “A 250 year argument: Belief, behavior, and the … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, education, maths, optimization, rationality, SPSA, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search | Leave a comment

The Great, Late Professor Stephen Schneider

Posted in atheism, climate, environment, geophysics, maths, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, science, statistics | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Powerful and Proper Time Series Statistics

I hadn’t gotten around to reading Mark Richardson’s “New study by Skeptical Science author finds 100% of atmospheric CO2 rise is man-made” until this afternoon. I find its import, along with fellow commentators Masters and Benestad, to be on the … Continue reading

Posted in climate, environment, geophysics, maths, physics, science, statistics | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

A “warming plateau”?

There’s was an article in The New York Times yesterday titled “What to make of a warming plateau”. In addition to there being no Comments available there, I find the article annoying, since I see no evidence that there is … Continue reading

Posted in climate, environment, geophysics, maths, oceanography, physics, science, statistics | 1 Comment

Slamming the climate system

This is from a lecture in San Francisco by Dr Emily Shuckburgh earlier this year.

Posted in climate, education, environment, geophysics, maths, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics | Tagged , | Leave a comment