### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Gavin Simpson
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Ted Dunning
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Karl Broman
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- James' Empty Blog
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- "The Expert"
- NCAR AtmosNews
- American Statistical Association
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- All about models
- Slice Sampling
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Risk and Well-Being
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”

### climate change

- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- World Weather Attribution
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Social Cost of Carbon
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- And Then There's Physics
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- RealClimate
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- weather blocking patterns
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Simple models of climate change
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- David Appell's early climate science
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: SPSA

## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## high dimension Metropolis-Hastings algorithms

If attempting to simulate from a multivariate standard normal distribution in a large dimension, when starting from the mode of the target, i.e., its mean γ, leaving the mode γis extremely unlikely, given the huge drop between the value of the density at the mode γ and at likely realisations Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, boosting, chance, Christian Robert, computation, ensembles, Gibbs Sampling, James Spall, Jerome Friedman, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical software, numerics, optimization, reasonableness, Robert Schapire, SPSA, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Yoav Freund
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## “The joy and martyrdom of trying to be a Bayesian”

Bayesians have all been there. Some of us don’t depend upon producing publications to assure our pay, so we less have the pressure of pleasing peer reviewers. Nonetheless, it’s all reacting to “What the hell are you doing? I don’t … Continue reading

## “Bayes’ theorem in the 21st century”

Professor Bradley Efron wrote a piece on “Bayes’ theorem in the 21st century” in Science for 7th June 2013 which, as always, offers his measured approach to the frequentist-Bayesian controversy (see B. Efron, “A 250 year argument: Belief, behavior, and the … Continue reading