Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- London Review of Books
- What If
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- American Statistical Association
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- All about models
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Earle Wilson
- Professor David Draper
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Risk and Well-Being
- Karl Broman
- "The Expert"
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Mertonian norms
- Label Noise
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Gavin Simpson
- James' Empty Blog
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Skeptical Science
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- Sea Change Boston
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Ice and Snow
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- weather blocking patterns
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Warming slowdown discussion
- And Then There's Physics
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Earth System Models
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Social Cost of Carbon
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Simple models of climate change
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- David Appell's early climate science
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
Category Archives: SPSA
“Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]
Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search Leave a comment
high dimension Metropolis-Hastings algorithms
If attempting to simulate from a multivariate standard normal distribution in a large dimension, when starting from the mode of the target, i.e., its mean γ, leaving the mode γis extremely unlikely, given the huge drop between the value of the density at the mode γ and at likely realisations Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, boosting, chance, Christian Robert, computation, ensembles, Gibbs Sampling, James Spall, Jerome Friedman, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical software, numerics, optimization, reasonableness, Robert Schapire, SPSA, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Yoav Freund Leave a comment
“The joy and martyrdom of trying to be a Bayesian”
Bayesians have all been there. Some of us don’t depend upon producing publications to assure our pay, so we less have the pressure of pleasing peer reviewers. Nonetheless, it’s all reacting to “What the hell are you doing? I don’t … Continue reading
“Bayes’ theorem in the 21st century”
Professor Bradley Efron wrote a piece on “Bayes’ theorem in the 21st century” in Science for 7th June 2013 which, as always, offers his measured approach to the frequentist-Bayesian controversy (see B. Efron, “A 250 year argument: Belief, behavior, and the … Continue reading