### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Gavin Simpson
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Mertonian norms
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Number Cruncher Politics
- James' Empty Blog
- Ted Dunning
- American Statistical Association
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- "The Expert"
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Karl Broman
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Earle Wilson
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- London Review of Books
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Label Noise
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war

### climate change

- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Spectra Energy exposed
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Reanalyses.org
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Ice and Snow
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Climate model projections versus observations
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- David Appell's early climate science
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- The Sunlight Economy
- World Weather Attribution

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Bayesian inversion

## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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## p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule

The American Statistical Association of which I am a longtime member issued an important statement today which will hopefully move statistical practice in engineering and especially in the sciences away from the misleading practice of using p-values and hypothesis tests. … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, bollocks, Christian Robert, climate, complex systems, data science, Frequentist, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, science, scientific publishing, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics, Student t distribution
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## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## high dimension Metropolis-Hastings algorithms

If attempting to simulate from a multivariate standard normal distribution in a large dimension, when starting from the mode of the target, i.e., its mean γ, leaving the mode γis extremely unlikely, given the huge drop between the value of the density at the mode γ and at likely realisations Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, boosting, chance, Christian Robert, computation, ensembles, Gibbs Sampling, James Spall, Jerome Friedman, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical software, numerics, optimization, reasonableness, Robert Schapire, SPSA, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Yoav Freund
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## Generating supports for classification rules in black box regression models

Inspired by the extensive and excellent work in approximate Bayesian computation (see also), especially that done by Professors Christian Robert and colleagues (see also), and Professor Simon Wood (see also), it occurred to me that the complaints regarding lack of … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, generalized linear models, machine learning, numerical analysis, numerical software, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, support of black boxes
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## reblog: “Tiny Data, Approximate Bayesian Computation and the Socks of Karl Broman”

It’s Rasmus Bååth, in a post and video of which I am very fond: http://www.sumsar.net/blog/2014/10/tiny-data-and-the-socks-of-karl-broman/.

## On differential localization of tumors using relative concentrations of ctDNA. Part 2.

Part 1 of this series introduced the idea of ctDNA and its use for detecting cancers or their resurgence, and proposed a scheme whereby relative concentrations of ctDNA at two or more sites after controlled disturbance might be used to … Continue reading

## On differential localization of tumors using relative concentrations of ctDNA. Part 1.

Like most mammalian tissue, tumors often produce shards of DNA as a byproduct of cell death and fracture. This circulating tumor DNA is being studied as a means of detecting tumors or their resurgence after treatment. (See also a Q&A … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, cardiovascular system, diffusion, dynamic linear models, eigenanalysis, engineering, forecasting, mathematics, maths, medicine, networks, prediction, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, wave equations
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