Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- "The Expert"
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Risk and Well-Being
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Gabriel's staircase
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Professor David Draper
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- What If
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Awkward Botany
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- distributed solar and matching location to need
climate change
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Warming slowdown discussion
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- RealClimate
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Skeptical Science
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- David Appell's early climate science
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Earth System Models
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- The Sunlight Economy
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Social Cost of Carbon
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- SolarLove
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- Simple models of climate change
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: Bayesian inversion
On Smart Data
One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading
Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule
The American Statistical Association of which I am a longtime member issued an important statement today which will hopefully move statistical practice in engineering and especially in the sciences away from the misleading practice of using p-values and hypothesis tests. … Continue reading
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, bollocks, Christian Robert, climate, complex systems, data science, Frequentist, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, science, scientific publishing, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics, Student t distribution
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“Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]
Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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high dimension Metropolis-Hastings algorithms
If attempting to simulate from a multivariate standard normal distribution in a large dimension, when starting from the mode of the target, i.e., its mean γ, leaving the mode γis extremely unlikely, given the huge drop between the value of the density at the mode γ and at likely realisations Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, boosting, chance, Christian Robert, computation, ensembles, Gibbs Sampling, James Spall, Jerome Friedman, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical software, numerics, optimization, reasonableness, Robert Schapire, SPSA, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Yoav Freund
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Generating supports for classification rules in black box regression models
Inspired by the extensive and excellent work in approximate Bayesian computation (see also), especially that done by Professors Christian Robert and colleagues (see also), and Professor Simon Wood (see also), it occurred to me that the complaints regarding lack of … Continue reading
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, generalized linear models, machine learning, numerical analysis, numerical software, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, support of black boxes
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reblog: “Tiny Data, Approximate Bayesian Computation and the Socks of Karl Broman”
It’s Rasmus Bååth, in a post and video of which I am very fond: http://www.sumsar.net/blog/2014/10/tiny-data-and-the-socks-of-karl-broman/.
On differential localization of tumors using relative concentrations of ctDNA. Part 2.
Part 1 of this series introduced the idea of ctDNA and its use for detecting cancers or their resurgence, and proposed a scheme whereby relative concentrations of ctDNA at two or more sites after controlled disturbance might be used to … Continue reading
On differential localization of tumors using relative concentrations of ctDNA. Part 1.
Like most mammalian tissue, tumors often produce shards of DNA as a byproduct of cell death and fracture. This circulating tumor DNA is being studied as a means of detecting tumors or their resurgence after treatment. (See also a Q&A … Continue reading
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, cardiovascular system, diffusion, dynamic linear models, eigenanalysis, engineering, forecasting, mathematics, maths, medicine, networks, prediction, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, wave equations
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ecoquant
