### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Risk and Well-Being
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- "The Expert"
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Mertonian norms
- James' Empty Blog
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Awkward Botany
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Ted Dunning
- Karl Broman
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Label Noise
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science

### climate change

- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Earth System Models
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- SolarLove
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- RealClimate
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Reanalyses.org
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- weather blocking patterns
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Simple models of climate change
- Skeptical Science

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Christian Robert

## Fecklessness

(A post inspired by Professor Christian Robert at his blog.) This is from The New Yorker‘s 7th November 2021 issue. It features an article by staff writer Elizabeth Kolbert titled “Running out of time at the U.N. climate conference” which … Continue reading

## Reanalysis of business visits from deployments of a mobile phone app

Updated, 20th October 2020 This reports a reanalysis of data from the deployment of a mobile phone app, as reported in: M. Yauck, L.-P. Rivest, G. Rothman, “Capture-recapture methods for data on the activation of applications on mobile phones“, Journal … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian computational methods, biology, capture-mark-recapture, capture-recapture, Christian Robert, count data regression, cumulants, diffusion, diffusion processes, Ecological Society of America, ecology, epidemiology, experimental science, field research, Gibbs Sampling, Internet measurement, Jean-Michel Marin, linear regression, mark-recapture, mathematics, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multilist methods, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerics, open source scientific software, Pierre-Simon Laplace, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, R statistical programming language, sampling, sampling algorithms, segmented package in R, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, stepwise approximation, stochastic algorithms, surveys, V. M. R. Muggeo
1 Comment

## From Xian’s blog, “drivers are not interested in maths formulas”

via drivers are not interested in maths formulas

## p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule

The American Statistical Association of which I am a longtime member issued an important statement today which will hopefully move statistical practice in engineering and especially in the sciences away from the misleading practice of using p-values and hypothesis tests. … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, bollocks, Christian Robert, climate, complex systems, data science, Frequentist, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, science, scientific publishing, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics, Student t distribution
Leave a comment

## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
Leave a comment

## high dimension Metropolis-Hastings algorithms

If attempting to simulate from a multivariate standard normal distribution in a large dimension, when starting from the mode of the target, i.e., its mean γ, leaving the mode γis extremely unlikely, given the huge drop between the value of the density at the mode γ and at likely realisations Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, boosting, chance, Christian Robert, computation, ensembles, Gibbs Sampling, James Spall, Jerome Friedman, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical software, numerics, optimization, reasonableness, Robert Schapire, SPSA, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Yoav Freund
Leave a comment