### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Gabriel's staircase
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Risk and Well-Being
- Earle Wilson
- London Review of Books
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- What If
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- American Statistical Association
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Mertonian norms
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Gavin Simpson
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.

### climate change

- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Reanalyses.org
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- weather blocking patterns
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- David Appell's early climate science
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Sea Change Boston
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Warming slowdown discussion
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- MIT's Climate Primer
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- World Weather Attribution
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- And Then There's Physics
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- Ice and Snow

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Christian Robert

## Fecklessness

(A post inspired by Professor Christian Robert at his blog.) This is from The New Yorker‘s 7th November 2021 issue. It features an article by staff writer Elizabeth Kolbert titled “Running out of time at the U.N. climate conference” which … Continue reading

## Reanalysis of business visits from deployments of a mobile phone app

Updated, 20th October 2020 This reports a reanalysis of data from the deployment of a mobile phone app, as reported in: M. Yauck, L.-P. Rivest, G. Rothman, “Capture-recapture methods for data on the activation of applications on mobile phones“, Journal … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian computational methods, biology, capture-mark-recapture, capture-recapture, Christian Robert, count data regression, cumulants, diffusion, diffusion processes, Ecological Society of America, ecology, epidemiology, experimental science, field research, Gibbs Sampling, Internet measurement, Jean-Michel Marin, linear regression, mark-recapture, mathematics, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multilist methods, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerics, open source scientific software, Pierre-Simon Laplace, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, R statistical programming language, sampling, sampling algorithms, segmented package in R, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, stepwise approximation, stochastic algorithms, surveys, V. M. R. Muggeo
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## From Xian’s blog, “drivers are not interested in maths formulas”

via drivers are not interested in maths formulas

## p-values and hypothesis tests: the Bayesian(s) rule

The American Statistical Association of which I am a longtime member issued an important statement today which will hopefully move statistical practice in engineering and especially in the sciences away from the misleading practice of using p-values and hypothesis tests. … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, bollocks, Christian Robert, climate, complex systems, data science, Frequentist, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, science, scientific publishing, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastics, Student t distribution
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## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## high dimension Metropolis-Hastings algorithms

If attempting to simulate from a multivariate standard normal distribution in a large dimension, when starting from the mode of the target, i.e., its mean γ, leaving the mode γis extremely unlikely, given the huge drop between the value of the density at the mode γ and at likely realisations Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, boosting, chance, Christian Robert, computation, ensembles, Gibbs Sampling, James Spall, Jerome Friedman, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical software, numerics, optimization, reasonableness, Robert Schapire, SPSA, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Yoav Freund
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