### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Number Cruncher Politics
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Mertonian norms
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Ted Dunning
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- What If
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- London Review of Books
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Professor David Draper
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Label Noise
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- "The Expert"
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Gavin Simpson
- All about models
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Gabriel's staircase
- Risk and Well-Being
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.

### climate change

- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- weather blocking patterns
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Spectra Energy exposed
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Earth System Models
- RealClimate
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Reanalyses.org
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- The Sunlight Economy
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Climate model projections versus observations
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: BUGS

## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## Bayesian change-point analysis for global temperatures, 1850-2010

Professor Peter Congdon reports on two Bayesian models for global temperature shifts in his textbook, Applied Bayesian Modelling, as “Example 6.12: Global temperatures, 1850-2010”, on pages 252-253. A direct link is available online. The first is apparently original with Congdon, … Continue reading

## Christian Robert on the amazing Gibbs sampler

Professor Christian Robert remarks on the amazing Gibbs sampler. Implicitly he’s also underscoring the power of properly done Bayesian computational analysis. For here we have a problem with a posterior distribution having two strong modes, so a point estimate, like … Continue reading

## An equation-free introduction to Bayesian inference

By Tomoharu Eguchi from 2008: “An Introduction to Bayesian Statistics Without Using Equations“.

## Blind Bayesian recovery of components of residential solid waste tonnage from totals data

This is a sketch of how maths and statistics can do something called blind source separation, meaning to estimate the components of data given only their totals. Here, I use Bayesian techniques for the purpose, sometimes called Bayesian inversion, using … Continue reading

## “The joy and martyrdom of trying to be a Bayesian”

Bayesians have all been there. Some of us don’t depend upon producing publications to assure our pay, so we less have the pressure of pleasing peer reviewers. Nonetheless, it’s all reacting to “What the hell are you doing? I don’t … Continue reading

## How fast is JAGS?

How fast is JAGS?.

## A recap of Craven’s Bayesian location search for the Scorpion

… in the context of trying to locate Malaysian Airlines Flight 370: See the story at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/science/earth/us-navy-strategists-have-a-long-history-of-finding-the-lost.html Here is a PowerPoint presentation from 2005 from Walter Stromquist giving some of the technical details about under water searches: Stromquist–BayesianSearch2005 LCDR Kyle Caudle … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, BUGS, WHOI
Tagged Caudle, Craven, Stromquist, U.S. Naval Academy
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## The zero-crossings trick for JAGS: Finding roots stochastically

BUGS has a “zeros trick” (Lund, Jackson, Best, Thomas, Spiegelhalter, 2013, pages 204-206; see also an online illustration) for specifying a new distribution which is not in the standard set. The idea is to couple an invented-for-the-moment Poisson density to … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, BUGS, education, forecasting, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, mathematics, MCMC, probabilistic programming, R, statistics, stochastic search
Tagged error-in-variables problem, optimization, zeros trick
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