### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- London Review of Books
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Gavin Simpson
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Professor David Draper
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Slice Sampling
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- NCAR AtmosNews
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Gabriel's staircase
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- "The Expert"
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Label Noise
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Mertonian norms
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- James' Empty Blog
- Awkward Botany
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.

### climate change

- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Risk and Well-Being
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- weather blocking patterns
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Social Cost of Carbon
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- RealClimate
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- MIT's Climate Primer
- Simple models of climate change
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Reanalyses.org
- Climate model projections versus observations
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- David Appell's early climate science
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Earth System Models
- And Then There's Physics
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: BUGS

## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## Bayesian change-point analysis for global temperatures, 1850-2010

Professor Peter Congdon reports on two Bayesian models for global temperature shifts in his textbook, Applied Bayesian Modelling, as “Example 6.12: Global temperatures, 1850-2010”, on pages 252-253. A direct link is available online. The first is apparently original with Congdon, … Continue reading

## Christian Robert on the amazing Gibbs sampler

Professor Christian Robert remarks on the amazing Gibbs sampler. Implicitly he’s also underscoring the power of properly done Bayesian computational analysis. For here we have a problem with a posterior distribution having two strong modes, so a point estimate, like … Continue reading

## An equation-free introduction to Bayesian inference

By Tomoharu Eguchi from 2008: “An Introduction to Bayesian Statistics Without Using Equations“.

## Blind Bayesian recovery of components of residential solid waste tonnage from totals data

This is a sketch of how maths and statistics can do something called blind source separation, meaning to estimate the components of data given only their totals. Here, I use Bayesian techniques for the purpose, sometimes called Bayesian inversion, using … Continue reading

## “The joy and martyrdom of trying to be a Bayesian”

Bayesians have all been there. Some of us don’t depend upon producing publications to assure our pay, so we less have the pressure of pleasing peer reviewers. Nonetheless, it’s all reacting to “What the hell are you doing? I don’t … Continue reading

## How fast is JAGS?

How fast is JAGS?.

## A recap of Craven’s Bayesian location search for the Scorpion

… in the context of trying to locate Malaysian Airlines Flight 370: See the story at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/science/earth/us-navy-strategists-have-a-long-history-of-finding-the-lost.html Here is a PowerPoint presentation from 2005 from Walter Stromquist giving some of the technical details about under water searches: Stromquist–BayesianSearch2005 LCDR Kyle Caudle … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, BUGS, WHOI
Tagged Caudle, Craven, Stromquist, U.S. Naval Academy
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## The zero-crossings trick for JAGS: Finding roots stochastically

BUGS has a “zeros trick” (Lund, Jackson, Best, Thomas, Spiegelhalter, 2013, pages 204-206; see also an online illustration) for specifying a new distribution which is not in the standard set. The idea is to couple an invented-for-the-moment Poisson density to … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, BUGS, education, forecasting, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, mathematics, MCMC, probabilistic programming, R, statistics, stochastic search
Tagged error-in-variables problem, optimization, zeros trick
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