### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Karl Broman
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Earle Wilson
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Ted Dunning
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Gabriel's staircase
- American Statistical Association
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Label Noise
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- All about models
- Awkward Botany
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- London Review of Books
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Mertonian norms
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- "The Expert"
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels

### climate change

- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Ice and Snow
- Warming slowdown discussion
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- And Then There's Physics
- Reanalyses.org
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- David Appell's early climate science
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- SolarLove
- Skeptical Science
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Social Cost of Carbon
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- The Sunlight Economy
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Climate model projections versus observations
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: BUGS

## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## Bayesian change-point analysis for global temperatures, 1850-2010

Professor Peter Congdon reports on two Bayesian models for global temperature shifts in his textbook, Applied Bayesian Modelling, as “Example 6.12: Global temperatures, 1850-2010”, on pages 252-253. A direct link is available online. The first is apparently original with Congdon, … Continue reading

## Christian Robert on the amazing Gibbs sampler

Professor Christian Robert remarks on the amazing Gibbs sampler. Implicitly he’s also underscoring the power of properly done Bayesian computational analysis. For here we have a problem with a posterior distribution having two strong modes, so a point estimate, like … Continue reading

## An equation-free introduction to Bayesian inference

By Tomoharu Eguchi from 2008: “An Introduction to Bayesian Statistics Without Using Equations“.

## Blind Bayesian recovery of components of residential solid waste tonnage from totals data

This is a sketch of how maths and statistics can do something called blind source separation, meaning to estimate the components of data given only their totals. Here, I use Bayesian techniques for the purpose, sometimes called Bayesian inversion, using … Continue reading

## “The joy and martyrdom of trying to be a Bayesian”

Bayesians have all been there. Some of us don’t depend upon producing publications to assure our pay, so we less have the pressure of pleasing peer reviewers. Nonetheless, it’s all reacting to “What the hell are you doing? I don’t … Continue reading

## How fast is JAGS?

How fast is JAGS?.

## A recap of Craven’s Bayesian location search for the Scorpion

… in the context of trying to locate Malaysian Airlines Flight 370: See the story at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/science/earth/us-navy-strategists-have-a-long-history-of-finding-the-lost.html Here is a PowerPoint presentation from 2005 from Walter Stromquist giving some of the technical details about under water searches: Stromquist–BayesianSearch2005 LCDR Kyle Caudle … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, BUGS, WHOI
Tagged Caudle, Craven, Stromquist, U.S. Naval Academy
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## The zero-crossings trick for JAGS: Finding roots stochastically

BUGS has a “zeros trick” (Lund, Jackson, Best, Thomas, Spiegelhalter, 2013, pages 204-206; see also an online illustration) for specifying a new distribution which is not in the standard set. The idea is to couple an invented-for-the-moment Poisson density to … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, BUGS, education, forecasting, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, mathematics, MCMC, probabilistic programming, R, statistics, stochastic search
Tagged error-in-variables problem, optimization, zeros trick
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