### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- What If
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Professor David Draper
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Risk and Well-Being
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- London Review of Books
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Slice Sampling
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Ted Dunning
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Label Noise
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Gabriel's staircase
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth

### climate change

- Jacobson WWS literature index
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Simple models of climate change
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- David Appell's early climate science
- Reanalyses.org
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- Skeptical Science
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Spectra Energy exposed
- World Weather Attribution
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- RealClimate
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Ice and Snow
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- And Then There's Physics
- The Sunlight Economy
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: BUGS

## “Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]

Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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## Bayesian change-point analysis for global temperatures, 1850-2010

Professor Peter Congdon reports on two Bayesian models for global temperature shifts in his textbook, Applied Bayesian Modelling, as “Example 6.12: Global temperatures, 1850-2010”, on pages 252-253. A direct link is available online. The first is apparently original with Congdon, … Continue reading

## Christian Robert on the amazing Gibbs sampler

Professor Christian Robert remarks on the amazing Gibbs sampler. Implicitly he’s also underscoring the power of properly done Bayesian computational analysis. For here we have a problem with a posterior distribution having two strong modes, so a point estimate, like … Continue reading

## An equation-free introduction to Bayesian inference

By Tomoharu Eguchi from 2008: “An Introduction to Bayesian Statistics Without Using Equations“.

## Blind Bayesian recovery of components of residential solid waste tonnage from totals data

This is a sketch of how maths and statistics can do something called blind source separation, meaning to estimate the components of data given only their totals. Here, I use Bayesian techniques for the purpose, sometimes called Bayesian inversion, using … Continue reading

## “The joy and martyrdom of trying to be a Bayesian”

Bayesians have all been there. Some of us don’t depend upon producing publications to assure our pay, so we less have the pressure of pleasing peer reviewers. Nonetheless, it’s all reacting to “What the hell are you doing? I don’t … Continue reading

## How fast is JAGS?

How fast is JAGS?.

## A recap of Craven’s Bayesian location search for the Scorpion

… in the context of trying to locate Malaysian Airlines Flight 370: See the story at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/science/earth/us-navy-strategists-have-a-long-history-of-finding-the-lost.html Here is a PowerPoint presentation from 2005 from Walter Stromquist giving some of the technical details about under water searches: Stromquist–BayesianSearch2005 LCDR Kyle Caudle … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, BUGS, WHOI
Tagged Caudle, Craven, Stromquist, U.S. Naval Academy
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## The zero-crossings trick for JAGS: Finding roots stochastically

BUGS has a “zeros trick” (Lund, Jackson, Best, Thomas, Spiegelhalter, 2013, pages 204-206; see also an online illustration) for specifying a new distribution which is not in the standard set. The idea is to couple an invented-for-the-moment Poisson density to … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian, BUGS, education, forecasting, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, mathematics, MCMC, probabilistic programming, R, statistics, stochastic search
Tagged error-in-variables problem, optimization, zeros trick
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