Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Awkward Botany
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Risk and Well-Being
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Ted Dunning
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Label Noise
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- James' Empty Blog
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Gabriel's staircase
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Mertonian norms
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Slice Sampling
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- London Review of Books
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Number Cruncher Politics
- NCAR AtmosNews
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- American Statistical Association
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
climate change
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Reanalyses.org
- Social Cost of Carbon
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Risk and Well-Being
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Sea Change Boston
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- weather blocking patterns
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- The Sunlight Economy
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- And Then There's Physics
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- David Appell's early climate science
- MIT's Climate Primer
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- RealClimate
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: BUGS
“Grid shading by simulated annealing” [Martyn Plummer]
Source: Grid shading by simulated annealing (or what I did on my holidays), aka “fun with GCHQ job adverts”, by Martyn Plummer, developer of JAGS. Excerpt: I wanted to solve the puzzle but did not want to sit down with … Continue reading
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, Boltzmann, BUGS, Christian Robert, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, likelihood-free, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Martyn Plummer, mathematics, maths, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, optimization, probabilistic programming, SPSA, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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Bayesian change-point analysis for global temperatures, 1850-2010
Professor Peter Congdon reports on two Bayesian models for global temperature shifts in his textbook, Applied Bayesian Modelling, as “Example 6.12: Global temperatures, 1850-2010”, on pages 252-253. A direct link is available online. The first is apparently original with Congdon, … Continue reading
Christian Robert on the amazing Gibbs sampler
Professor Christian Robert remarks on the amazing Gibbs sampler. Implicitly he’s also underscoring the power of properly done Bayesian computational analysis. For here we have a problem with a posterior distribution having two strong modes, so a point estimate, like … Continue reading
An equation-free introduction to Bayesian inference
By Tomoharu Eguchi from 2008: “An Introduction to Bayesian Statistics Without Using Equations“.
Blind Bayesian recovery of components of residential solid waste tonnage from totals data
This is a sketch of how maths and statistics can do something called blind source separation, meaning to estimate the components of data given only their totals. Here, I use Bayesian techniques for the purpose, sometimes called Bayesian inversion, using … Continue reading
“The joy and martyrdom of trying to be a Bayesian”
Bayesians have all been there. Some of us don’t depend upon producing publications to assure our pay, so we less have the pressure of pleasing peer reviewers. Nonetheless, it’s all reacting to “What the hell are you doing? I don’t … Continue reading
How fast is JAGS?
How fast is JAGS?.
A recap of Craven’s Bayesian location search for the Scorpion
… in the context of trying to locate Malaysian Airlines Flight 370: See the story at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/science/earth/us-navy-strategists-have-a-long-history-of-finding-the-lost.html Here is a PowerPoint presentation from 2005 from Walter Stromquist giving some of the technical details about under water searches: Stromquist–BayesianSearch2005 LCDR Kyle Caudle … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian, BUGS, WHOI
Tagged Caudle, Craven, Stromquist, U.S. Naval Academy
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The zero-crossings trick for JAGS: Finding roots stochastically
BUGS has a “zeros trick” (Lund, Jackson, Best, Thomas, Spiegelhalter, 2013, pages 204-206; see also an online illustration) for specifying a new distribution which is not in the standard set. The idea is to couple an invented-for-the-moment Poisson density to … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian, BUGS, education, forecasting, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, mathematics, MCMC, probabilistic programming, R, statistics, stochastic search
Tagged error-in-variables problem, optimization, zeros trick
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ecoquant
