### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Professor David Draper
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Gabriel's staircase
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- James' Empty Blog
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Mertonian norms
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Awkward Botany
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Karl Broman
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- What If
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu

### climate change

- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Skeptical Science
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Climate model projections versus observations
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- RealClimate
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- And Then There's Physics
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Sea Change Boston
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: hierarchical clustering

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
Leave a comment

## A look at an electricity consumption series using SNCDs for clustering

(Slightly amended with code and data link, 12th January 2019.) Prediction of electrical load demand or, in other words, electrical energy consumption is important for the proper operation of electrical grids, at all scales. RTOs and ISOs forecast demand based … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, consumption, data streams, decentralized electric power generation, dendrogram, divergence measures, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy efficiency, energy utilities, ensembles, evidence, forecasting, grid defection, hierarchical clustering, hydrology, ILSR, information theoretic statistics, local self reliance, Massachusetts, microgrids, NCD, normalized compression divergence, numerical software, open data, prediction, rate of return regulation, Sankey diagram, SNCD, statistical dependence, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, symmetric normalized compression divergence, time series
2 Comments