### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Awkward Botany
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Karl Broman
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Gabriel's staircase
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Earle Wilson
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- American Statistical Association
- Mertonian norms
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Slice Sampling
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Professor David Draper
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Label Noise
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- All about models
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Gavin Simpson
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.

### climate change

- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Climate model projections versus observations
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Simple models of climate change
- Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
- Earth System Models
- MIT's Climate Primer
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- And Then There's Physics
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- weather blocking patterns
- Skeptical Science
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: hierarchical clustering

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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## A look at an electricity consumption series using SNCDs for clustering

(Slightly amended with code and data link, 12th January 2019.) Prediction of electrical load demand or, in other words, electrical energy consumption is important for the proper operation of electrical grids, at all scales. RTOs and ISOs forecast demand based … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, consumption, data streams, decentralized electric power generation, dendrogram, divergence measures, efficiency, electricity, electricity markets, energy efficiency, energy utilities, ensembles, evidence, forecasting, grid defection, hierarchical clustering, hydrology, ILSR, information theoretic statistics, local self reliance, Massachusetts, microgrids, NCD, normalized compression divergence, numerical software, open data, prediction, rate of return regulation, Sankey diagram, SNCD, statistical dependence, statistical series, statistics, sustainability, symmetric normalized compression divergence, time series
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