### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Karl Broman
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Risk and Well-Being
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- James' Empty Blog
- Label Noise
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- American Statistical Association
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- What If
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Mertonian norms
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- London Review of Books
- NCAR AtmosNews
- All about models
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling

### climate change

- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Risk and Well-Being
- MIT's Climate Primer
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Ice and Snow
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- RealClimate
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Reanalyses.org
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- And Then There's Physics
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Simple models of climate change
- Spectra Energy exposed
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Solar Gardens Community Power

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Calculus

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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## Cumulants and the Cornish-Fisher Expansion

“Consider the following.” (Bill Nye the Science Guy) There are random variables drawn from the same kind of probability distribution, but with different parameters for each. In this example, I’ll consider random variables , that is, each drawn from a … Continue reading

## When linear systems can’t be solved by linear means

Linear systems of equations and their solution form the cornerstone of much Engineering and Science. Linear algebra is a paragon of Mathematics in the sense that its theory is what mathematicians try to emulate when they develop theory for many … Continue reading

## Merry Newtonmas tomorrow! On finding the area of the Batman Shape using Monte Carlo integration

It’s Newtonmas 2017 tomorrow! What better way to celebrate than talk about integration! The Batman Shape (sometimes called the Batman Curve, somewhat erroneously, I think) looks like this: You can find details about it at Wolfram MathWorld, including its area … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Calculus, Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Tagged Batman Curve, Batman Shape, James Schloss, Monte Carlo integration, slice sampling
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