### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- All about models
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Slice Sampling
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- American Statistical Association
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Gabriel's staircase
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- London Review of Books
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Gavin Simpson
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Earle Wilson
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- "The Expert"
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Risk and Well-Being
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.

### climate change

- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Ice and Snow
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- World Weather Attribution
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Reanalyses.org
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Earth System Models
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- And Then There's Physics
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- David Appell's early climate science
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Risk and Well-Being
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Warming slowdown discussion
- RealClimate
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- The Sunlight Economy
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Simple models of climate change
- SolarLove
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- Sea Change Boston
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- MIT's Climate Primer

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Calculus

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
Leave a comment

## Cumulants and the Cornish-Fisher Expansion

“Consider the following.” (Bill Nye the Science Guy) There are random variables drawn from the same kind of probability distribution, but with different parameters for each. In this example, I’ll consider random variables , that is, each drawn from a … Continue reading

## When linear systems can’t be solved by linear means

Linear systems of equations and their solution form the cornerstone of much Engineering and Science. Linear algebra is a paragon of Mathematics in the sense that its theory is what mathematicians try to emulate when they develop theory for many … Continue reading

## Merry Newtonmas tomorrow! On finding the area of the Batman Shape using Monte Carlo integration

It’s Newtonmas 2017 tomorrow! What better way to celebrate than talk about integration! The Batman Shape (sometimes called the Batman Curve, somewhat erroneously, I think) looks like this: You can find details about it at Wolfram MathWorld, including its area … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Calculus, Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Tagged Batman Curve, Batman Shape, James Schloss, Monte Carlo integration, slice sampling
1 Comment