### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Mertonian norms
- Number Cruncher Politics
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- distributed solar and matching location to need
- Ted Dunning
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Risk and Well-Being
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Karl Broman
- Awkward Botany
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Professor David Draper
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Slice Sampling
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- American Statistical Association
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Earle Wilson
- SASB Sustainability Accounting Standards Board
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Label Noise
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- What If
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson

### climate change

- Ice and Snow
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- And Then There's Physics
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- Steve Easterbrook's excellent climate blog: See his "The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet?" for example Heavy on data and computation, Easterbrook is a CS prof at UToronto, but is clearly familiar with climate science. I like his “The Internet: Saving Civilization or Trashing the Planet” very much.
- Risk and Well-Being
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- The Sunlight Economy
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Earth System Models
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Sea Change Boston
- Simple models of climate change
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
- Skeptical Science
- SolarLove
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- Reanalyses.org
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Spectra Energy exposed

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: Calculus

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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## Cumulants and the Cornish-Fisher Expansion

“Consider the following.” (Bill Nye the Science Guy) There are random variables drawn from the same kind of probability distribution, but with different parameters for each. In this example, I’ll consider random variables , that is, each drawn from a … Continue reading

## When linear systems can’t be solved by linear means

Linear systems of equations and their solution form the cornerstone of much Engineering and Science. Linear algebra is a paragon of Mathematics in the sense that its theory is what mathematicians try to emulate when they develop theory for many … Continue reading

## Merry Newtonmas tomorrow! On finding the area of the Batman Shape using Monte Carlo integration

It’s Newtonmas 2017 tomorrow! What better way to celebrate than talk about integration! The Batman Shape (sometimes called the Batman Curve, somewhat erroneously, I think) looks like this: You can find details about it at Wolfram MathWorld, including its area … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Calculus, Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Tagged Batman Curve, Batman Shape, James Schloss, Monte Carlo integration, slice sampling
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