### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Number Cruncher Politics
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- James' Empty Blog
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Mertonian norms
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- London Review of Books
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Gavin Simpson
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- "The Expert"
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Awkward Botany
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Label Noise
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Karl Broman
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Risk and Well-Being

### climate change

- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- And Then There's Physics
- Social Cost of Carbon
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Ice and Snow
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Reanalyses.org
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- World Weather Attribution
- An open letter to Steve Levitt
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Climate model projections versus observations
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Transitioning to fully renewable energy Professor Saul Griffiths talks to transitioning the customer journey, from a dependency upon fossil fuels to an electrified future
- Risk and Well-Being
- Spectra Energy exposed
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- SolarLove
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- weather blocking patterns
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Bloomberg interactive graph on “What's warming the world''
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- David Appell's early climate science
- RealClimate
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- Jacobson WWS literature index

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: non-parametric statistics

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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## Simplistic and Dangerous Models

Originally posted on Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology:

A few weeks ago there were none. Three weeks ago, with an entirely inadequate search strategy, ten cases were found. Last Saturday there were 43! With three inaccurate data points, there is enough information…

## Reanalysis of business visits from deployments of a mobile phone app

Updated, 20th October 2020 This reports a reanalysis of data from the deployment of a mobile phone app, as reported in: M. Yauck, L.-P. Rivest, G. Rothman, “Capture-recapture methods for data on the activation of applications on mobile phones“, Journal … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian computational methods, biology, capture-mark-recapture, capture-recapture, Christian Robert, count data regression, cumulants, diffusion, diffusion processes, Ecological Society of America, ecology, epidemiology, experimental science, field research, Gibbs Sampling, Internet measurement, Jean-Michel Marin, linear regression, mark-recapture, mathematics, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multilist methods, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerics, open source scientific software, Pierre-Simon Laplace, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, R statistical programming language, sampling, sampling algorithms, segmented package in R, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, stepwise approximation, stochastic algorithms, surveys, V. M. R. Muggeo
1 Comment

## Procrustes tangent distance is better than SNCD

I’ve written two posts here on using a Symmetrized Normalized Compression Divergence or SNCD for comparing time series. One introduced the SNCD and described its relationship to compression distance, and the other applied the SNCD to clustering days at a … Continue reading

Posted in data science, dependent data, descriptive statistics, divergence measures, hydrology, Ian Dryden, information theoretic statistics, J.T.Kent, Kanti Mardia, non-parametric statistics, normalized compression divergence, quantitative ecology, R statistical programming language, spatial statistics, statistical series, time series
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## Stream flow and P-splines: Using built-in estimates for smoothing

Mother Brook in Dedham Massachusetts was the first man-made canal in the United States. Dug in 1639, it connects the Charles River at Dedham, to the Neponset River in the Hyde Park section of Boston. It was originally an important … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, citizen data, citizen science, Clausius-Clapeyron equation, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, cross-validation, data science, dependent data, descriptive statistics, dynamic linear models, empirical likelihood, environment, flooding, floods, Grant Foster, hydrology, likelihood-free, meteorological models, model-free forecasting, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, precipitation, quantitative ecology, statistical dependence, statistical series, stream flow, Tamino, the bootstrap, time series, water vapor
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## Series, symmetrized Normalized Compressed Divergences and their logit transforms

(Major update on 11th January 2019. Minor update on 16th January 2019.) On comparing things The idea of a calculating a distance between series for various purposes has received scholarly attention for quite some time. The most common application is … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, bridge to somewhere, computation, content-free inference, data science, descriptive statistics, divergence measures, engineering, George Sughihara, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, machine learning, mathematics, model comparison, model-free forecasting, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series
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