### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- "The Expert"
- Gabriel's staircase
- Earle Wilson
- Awkward Botany
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- What If
- Mertonian norms
- Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Ives and Dakos techniques for regime changes in series
- Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Ted Dunning
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Risk and Well-Being
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Karl Broman
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Gavin Simpson
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets

### climate change

- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Spectra Energy exposed
- The beach boondoggle Prof Rob Young on how owners of beach property are socializing their risks at costs to all of us, not the least being it seems coastal damage is less than it actually is
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Ellenbogen: There is no Such Thing as Wind Turbine Syndrome
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- SolarLove
- World Weather Attribution
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Simple models of climate change
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Professor Robert Strom's compendium of resources on climate change Truly excellent
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- David Appell's early climate science
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- Sea Change Boston
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- US$165/tonne CO2: Sweden Sweden has a Carbon Dioxide tax of US$165 per tonne at present. CO2 tax was imposed in 1991. GDP has grown 60%.
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- The Sunlight Economy
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Climate Communication Hassol, Somerville, Melillo, and Hussin site communicating climate to the public
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Risk and Well-Being

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: non-parametric statistics

## Calculating Derivatives from Random Forests

(Comment on prediction intervals for random forests, and links to a paper.) (Edits to repair smudges, 2020-06-28, about 0945 EDT. Closing comment, 2020-06-30, 1450 EDT.) There are lots of ways of learning about mathematical constructs, even about actual machines. One … Continue reading

Posted in bridge to somewhere, Calculus, dependent data, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamical systems, ensemble methods, ensemble models, filtering, forecasting, hierarchical clustering, linear regression, model-free forecasting, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, prediction, R statistical programming language, random forests, regression, sampling, splines, statistical learning, statistical series, statistics, time derivatives, time series
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## Simplistic and Dangerous Models

Originally posted on Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology:

A few weeks ago there were none. Three weeks ago, with an entirely inadequate search strategy, ten cases were found. Last Saturday there were 43! With three inaccurate data points, there is enough information…

## Reanalysis of business visits from deployments of a mobile phone app

Updated, 20th October 2020 This reports a reanalysis of data from the deployment of a mobile phone app, as reported in: M. Yauck, L.-P. Rivest, G. Rothman, “Capture-recapture methods for data on the activation of applications on mobile phones“, Journal … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian computational methods, biology, capture-mark-recapture, capture-recapture, Christian Robert, count data regression, cumulants, diffusion, diffusion processes, Ecological Society of America, ecology, epidemiology, experimental science, field research, Gibbs Sampling, Internet measurement, Jean-Michel Marin, linear regression, mark-recapture, mathematics, maximum likelihood, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multilist methods, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerics, open source scientific software, Pierre-Simon Laplace, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, R, R statistical programming language, sampling, sampling algorithms, segmented package in R, statistical ecology, statistical models, statistical regression, statistical series, statistics, stepwise approximation, stochastic algorithms, surveys, V. M. R. Muggeo
1 Comment

## Procrustes tangent distance is better than SNCD

I’ve written two posts here on using a Symmetrized Normalized Compression Divergence or SNCD for comparing time series. One introduced the SNCD and described its relationship to compression distance, and the other applied the SNCD to clustering days at a … Continue reading

Posted in data science, dependent data, descriptive statistics, divergence measures, hydrology, Ian Dryden, information theoretic statistics, J.T.Kent, Kanti Mardia, non-parametric statistics, normalized compression divergence, quantitative ecology, R statistical programming language, spatial statistics, statistical series, time series
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## Stream flow and P-splines: Using built-in estimates for smoothing

Mother Brook in Dedham Massachusetts was the first man-made canal in the United States. Dug in 1639, it connects the Charles River at Dedham, to the Neponset River in the Hyde Park section of Boston. It was originally an important … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, citizen data, citizen science, Clausius-Clapeyron equation, Commonwealth of Massachusetts, cross-validation, data science, dependent data, descriptive statistics, dynamic linear models, empirical likelihood, environment, flooding, floods, Grant Foster, hydrology, likelihood-free, meteorological models, model-free forecasting, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric, non-parametric model, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, precipitation, quantitative ecology, statistical dependence, statistical series, stream flow, Tamino, the bootstrap, time series, water vapor
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## Series, symmetrized Normalized Compressed Divergences and their logit transforms

(Major update on 11th January 2019. Minor update on 16th January 2019.) On comparing things The idea of a calculating a distance between series for various purposes has received scholarly attention for quite some time. The most common application is … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, bridge to somewhere, computation, content-free inference, data science, descriptive statistics, divergence measures, engineering, George Sughihara, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, machine learning, mathematics, model comparison, model-free forecasting, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series
4 Comments