Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
 WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
 Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
 "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
 International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
 In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
 Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
 Professor David Draper
 Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
 Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
 Ted Dunning
 Mike Bloomberg, 2020 He can get progress on climate done, has the means and experts to counter the Trump and Republican digital disinformation machine, and has the experience, knowledge, and depth of experience to achieve and unify.
 Harvard's Project Implicit
 Karl Broman
 Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
 distributed solar and matching location to need
 South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
 Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
 Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
 NCAR AtmosNews
 All about models
 Beautiful Weeds of New York City
 "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
 GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
 American Statistical Association
 Gabriel's staircase
 Dr James Spall's SPSA
 Carl Safina's blog One of the wisest on Earth
 Gavin Simpson
 Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
 Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or Scurves as models of product takeup rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
 ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
 Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
 Los Alamos Center for Bayesian Methods
 BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
 Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanisticstatistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
 WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
 Label Noise
 Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the socalled “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
 Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in modelbased survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
 Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
 All about Sankey diagrams
 Slice Sampling
 The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
 American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
 Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
 "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
 Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
 "The Expert"
 Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
climate change
 ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
 Wally Broecker on climate realism
 Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
 Grid parity map for Solar PV in United States
 SolarLove
 Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
 Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
 Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
 Climate Change Denying Organizations
 Reanalyses.org
 Skeptical Science
 Earth System Models
 Sea Change Boston
 The Sunlight Economy
 Climate at a glance Current state of the climate, from NOAA
 Jacobson WWS literature index
 Jacobson WWS literature index
 "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@docsnow for more on him.)
 Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
 `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
 James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
 Risk and WellBeing
 weather blocking patterns
 Nonlinear feedbacks in climate (discussion of BlochJohnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
 Simple models of climate change
 History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
 And Then There's Physics
 Spectra Energy exposed
 The Scientific Case for Modern Humancaused Global Warming
 The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
 CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
 ExxonMobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
 Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
 Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
 Documenting the Climate Deniarati at work
 Thriving on Low Carbon
 Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
 "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
 Solar Gardens Community Power
 "Climate science is setttled enough"
 “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
 "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
 SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
 Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
 Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
 Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
 “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
 The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
 Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
 Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: Ethan Deyle
Liang, information flows, causation, and convergent crossmapping
Someone recommended the work of Liang recently in connection with causation and attribution studies, and their application to CO2 and climate change. Liang’s work is related to information flows and transfer entropies. As far as I know, the definitive work … Continue reading →
Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Anthropocene, attribution, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, complex systems, convergent crossmapping, ecology, Egbert van Nes, Ethan Deyle, Floris Takens, George Sughihara, global warming, Hao Ye, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, Lenny Smith, modelfree forecasting, nonlinear systems, physics, statistics, Takens embedding theorem, theoretical physics, Timothy Lenton, Victor Brovkin

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Just because the data lies sometimes doesn’t mean it’s okay to censor it
Or, there’s no such thing as an outlier … Eli put up a post titled “The Data Lies. The Crisis in Observational Science and the Virtue of Strong Theory” at his lagomorph blog. Think of it: Data lying. Obviously this … Continue reading →
Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Anthropocene, Bayes, Bayesian, climate, climate change, climate models, data science, dynamical systems, ecology, Eli Rabett, environment, Ethan Deyle, George Sughihara, Hao Ye, Hyper Anthropocene, information theoretic statistics, IPCC, Kalman filter, kriging, Lenny Smith, maximum likelihood, model comparison, modelfree forecasting, physics, quantitative ecology, random walk processes, random walks, science, smart data, statespace models, statistics, Takens embedding theorem, the right to know, Timothy Lenton, Victor Brovkin

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“Stochastic Parameterization: Towards a new view of weather and climate models”
Judith Berner, Ulrich Achatz, Lauriane Batté, Lisa Bengtsson, Alvaro De La Cámara, Hannah M. Christensen, Matteo Colangeli, Danielle R. B. Coleman, Daan Crommelin, Stamen I. Dolaptchiev, Christian L.E. Franzke, Petra Friederichs, Peter Imkeller, Heikki Järvinen, Stephan Juricke, Vassili Kitsios, François … Continue reading →
Posted in biology, climate models, complex systems, convergent crossmapping, data science, dynamical systems, ecology, Ethan Deyle, Floris Takens, George Sughihara, Hao Ye, likelihoodfree, Lorenz, mathematics, meteorological models, modelfree forecasting, physics, population biology, population dynamics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, statespace models, statistical dependence, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, Takens embedding theorem, time series, Victor Brovkin

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On Munshi mush
(Slightly updated on 20160611.) Professor Emeritus Jamal Munshi of Sonoma State University has papers recently cited in science denier circles as evidence that the conventional associations between mean global surface temperature and cumulative carbon emissions are, well, bunk, due to … Continue reading →
Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, BEST, carbon dioxide, cat1, climate, climate change, climate data, climate education, climate models, convergent crossmapping, dynamic linear models, ecology, ENSO, environment, Ethan Deyle, evidence, geophysics, George Sughihara, global warming, greenhouse gases, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, mathematics, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, prediction, statespace models, statistics, Takens embedding theorem, Techno Utopias, the right to know, theoretical physics, time series, zero carbon

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“Causal feedbacks in climate change”
Today I was reviewing and rereading the nonlinear time series technical literature I have, seeking ideas on how to go about using the statistical ensemble learning technique called “boosting” with them. (See the very nice book, R. E. Schapire, Y. … Continue reading →
Posted in Anthropocene, boosting, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, cat1, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, complex systems, convergent crossmapping, denial, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ecology, Egbert van Nes, empirical likelihood, ensembles, environment, Ethan Deyle, Floris Takens, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, George Sughihara, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hao Ye, machine learning, Maren Scheffer, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, rationality, reasonableness, science, statespace models, Takens embedding theorem, time series, Timothy Lenton, Victor Brovkin

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