### Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy

### Blogroll

- OOI Data Nuggets OOI Ocean Data Lab: The Data Nuggets
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Awkward Botany
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Risk and Well-Being
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- Mertonian norms
- American Statistical Association
- Busting Myths About Heat Pumps Heat pumps are perhaps the most efficient heating and cooling systems available. Recent literature distributed by utilities hawking natural gas and other sources use performance figures from heat pumps as they were available 15 years ago. See today’s.
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- GeoEnergy Math Prof Paul Pukite’s Web site devoted to energy derived from geological and geophysical processes and categorized according to its originating source.
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Lenny Smith's CHAOS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION This is a PDF version of Lenny Smith’s book of the same title, also available from Amazon.com
- Earle Wilson
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- Darren Wilkinson's introduction to ABC Darren Wilkinson’s introduction to approximate Bayesian computation (“ABC”). See also his post about summary statistics for ABC https://darrenjw.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/summary-stats-for-abc/
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- "Perpetual Ocean" from NASA GSFC
- Survey Methodology, Prof Ron Fricker http://faculty.nps.edu/rdfricke/
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Subsidies for wind and solar versus subsidies for fossil fuels
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- "The Expert"
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- NCAR AtmosNews
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference

### climate change

- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Warming slowdown discussion
- MIT's Climate Primer
- James Powell on sampling the climate consensus
- Isaac Held's blog In the spirit of Ray Pierrehumbert’s “big ideas come from small models” in his textbook, PRINCIPLES OF PLANETARY CLIMATE, Dr Held presents quantitative essays regarding one feature or another of the Earth’s climate and weather system.
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- Sea Change Boston
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Energy payback period for solar panels Considering everything, how long do solar panels have to operate to offset the energy used to produce them?
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- Earth System Models
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- The Scientific Case for Modern Human-caused Global Warming
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- "A field guide to the climate clowns"
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- Simple models of climate change
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Ray Pierrehumbert's site related to "Principles of Planetary Climate" THE book on climate science
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- And Then There's Physics
- Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- The Sunlight Economy
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- “The Irrelevance of Saturation: Why Carbon Dioxide Matters'' (Bart Levenson)
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- "Lessons of the Little Ice Age" (Farber) From Dan Farber, at LEGAL PLANET
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial

### Archives

### Jan Galkowski

# Category Archives: machine learning

## A response to a post on *RealClimate*

(Updated 2342 EDT, 28 June 2019.) This is a response to a post on RealClimate which primarily concerned economist Ross McKitrick’s op-ed in the Financial Post condemning the geophysical community for disregarding Roger Pielke, Jr’s arguments. Pielke, in that link, … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, AMETSOC, Bayesian, climate change, ecology, Ecology Action, environment, evidence, experimental design, Frequentist, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, machine learning, model comparison, model-free forecasting, multivariate statistics, science, science denier, statistical series, statistics, time series
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## “Applications of Deep Learning to ocean data inference and subgrid parameterization”

This is another nail in the coffin of the claim I heard at last year’s Lorenz-Charney Symposium at MIT that machine learning methods would not make a serious contribution to advancements in the geophysical sciences. T. Bolton, L. Zanna, “Applications … Continue reading

Posted in American Meteorological Association, American Statistical Association, artificial intelligence, Azimuth Project, deep learning, deep recurrent neural networks, dynamical systems, geophysics, machine learning, Mathematics and Climate Research Network, National Center for Atmospheric Research, oceanography, oceans, science, stochastic algorithms
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## Series, symmetrized Normalized Compressed Divergences and their logit transforms

(Major update on 11th January 2019. Minor update on 16th January 2019.) On comparing things The idea of a calculating a distance between series for various purposes has received scholarly attention for quite some time. The most common application is … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, bridge to somewhere, computation, content-free inference, data science, descriptive statistics, divergence measures, engineering, George Sughihara, information theoretic statistics, likelihood-free, machine learning, mathematics, model comparison, model-free forecasting, multivariate statistics, non-mechanistic modeling, non-parametric statistics, numerical algorithms, statistics, theoretical physics, thermodynamics, time series
4 Comments

## These are ethical “AI Principles” from Google, but they might as well be `technological principles’

This is entirely adapted from this link, courtesy of Google and Alphabet. Objectives Be socially beneficial. Avoid creating or reinforcing unfair bias. Be built and tested for safety. Be accountable to people. Incorporate privacy design principles. Uphold high standards of … Continue reading

Posted in American Statistical Association, artificial intelligence, basic research, Bayesian, Boston Ethical Society, complex systems, computation, corporate citizenship, corporate responsibility, deep recurrent neural networks, emergent organization, ethical ideals, ethics, extended producer responsibility, friends and colleagues, Google, Google Pixel 2, humanism, investments, machine learning, mathematics, moral leadership, natural philosophy, politics, risk, science, secularism, technology, The Demon Haunted World, the right to know, Unitarian Universalism, UU, UU Humanists
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## A “capacity for sustained muddle-headedness”

Hat tip to Paul Lauenstein, and his physician brother, suggesting the great insights of the late Dr Larry Weed: Great lines, great quotes, a lot of humor: “… a tolerance of ambiguity …” “Y’know, Pavlov said you must teach a … Continue reading

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Statistical Association, anemic data, Bayesian, cardiovascular system, David Spiegelhalter, machine learning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, medicine, Paul Lauenstein, rationality, reason, reasonableness, risk, statistics
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## “Hadoop is NOT ‘Big Data’ is NOT Analytics”

Arun Krishnan, CEO & Founder at Analytical Sciences comments on this serious problem with the field. Short excerpt: … A person who is able to write code using Hadoop and the associated frameworks is not necessarily someone who can understand … Continue reading

## Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION: A Review

(Revised and updated Monday, 24th October 2016.) Weapons of Math Destruction, Cathy O’Neil, published by Crown Random House, 2016. This is a thoughtful and very approachable introduction and review to the societal and personal consequences of data mining, data science, … Continue reading

Posted in citizen data, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, compassion, complex systems, criminal justice, Daniel Kahneman, data science, deep recurrent neural networks, destructive economic development, economics, education, engineering, ethics, Google, ignorance, Joseph Schumpeter, life purpose, machine learning, Mathbabe, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, model comparison, model-free forecasting, numerical analysis, numerical software, open data, optimization, organizational failures, planning, politics, prediction, prediction markets, privacy, rationality, reason, reasonableness, risk, silly tech devices, smart data, sociology, Techno Utopias, testing, the value of financial assets, transparency
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## “Holy crap – an actual book!”

Originally posted on mathbabe:

Yo, everyone! The final version of my book now exists, and I have exactly one copy! Here’s my editor, Amanda Cook, holding it yesterday when we met for beers: Here’s my son holding it: He’s offered…

Posted in American Association for the Advancement of Science, Buckminster Fuller, business, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, complex systems, confirmation bias, data science, data streams, deep recurrent neural networks, denial, economics, education, engineering, ethics, evidence, Internet, investing, life purpose, machine learning, mathematical publishing, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, moral leadership, multivariate statistics, numerical software, numerics, obfuscating data, organizational failures, politics, population biology, prediction, prediction markets, privacy, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reason, reasonableness, rhetoric, risk, Schnabel census, smart data, sociology, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the value of financial assets, transparency, UU Humanists
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## On Smart Data

One of the things I find surprising, if not astonishing, is that in the rush to embrace Big Data, a lot of learning and statistical technique has been left apparently discarded along the way. I’m hardly the first to point … Continue reading

Posted in Akaike Information Criterion, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, big data, bigmemory package for R, changepoint detection, data science, data streams, dlm package, dynamic generalized linear models, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, Generalize Additive Models, generalized linear models, information theoretic statistics, Kalman filter, linear algebra, logistic regression, machine learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, maximum likelihood, MCMC, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multivariate statistics, numerical analysis, numerical software, numerics, quantitative biology, quantitative ecology, rationality, reasonableness, sampling, smart data, state-space models, statistical dependence, statistics, the right to know, time series
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## HadCRUT4 and GISTEMP series filtered and estimated with simple RTS model

Happy Vernal Equinox! This post has been updated today with some of the equations which correspond to the models. An assessment of whether or not there was a meaningful slowdown or “hiatus” in global warming, was recently discussed by Tamino … Continue reading

Posted in AMETSOC, anemic data, Bayesian, boosting, bridge to somewhere, cat1, changepoint detection, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate models, complex systems, computation, data science, dynamical systems, geophysics, George Sughihara, global warming, hiatus, information theoretic statistics, machine learning, maths, meteorology, MIchael Mann, multivariate statistics, physics, prediction, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, regime shifts, sea level rise, time series
5 Comments

## K-Nearest Neighbors: dangerously simple

Originally posted on mathbabe:

I spend my time at work nowadays thinking about how to start a company in data science. Since there are tons of companies now collecting tons of data, and they don’t know what do to do…

Posted in big data, data science, evidence, machine learning
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## Google’s DeepMind consistently beats Fan Hui, the European GO grandmaster

This is pretty amazing news. DeepMind’s program AlphaGo beat Fan Hui, the European Go champion, five times out of five in tournament conditions, the firm reveals in research published in Nature on 27 January. It also defeated its silicon-based rivals, … Continue reading

## Professor Marvin Minsky dies at 88: What a noble mind is here o’erthrown

As a prospective and actual graduate student in MIT’s Artificial Intelligence Laboratory during the years 1974-1976, it is difficult to convey the draw and the incisiveness of Minsky’s mind. As an undergraduate in Physics with a very keen interest in … Continue reading

## Generating supports for classification rules in black box regression models

Inspired by the extensive and excellent work in approximate Bayesian computation (see also), especially that done by Professors Christian Robert and colleagues (see also), and Professor Simon Wood (see also), it occurred to me that the complaints regarding lack of … Continue reading

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, Bayesian inversion, generalized linear models, machine learning, numerical analysis, numerical software, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, stochastics, support of black boxes
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