Category: risk
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That two degree limit is closer than it appears
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in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, carbon dioxide sequestration, Carbon Worshipers, chaos, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, complex systems, COP21, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, corporate supply chains, critical slowing down, differential equations, Eaarth, ecology, environment, evidence, exponential growth, extended supply chains, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geoengineering, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, James Hansen, meteorology, mitigation, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, temporal myopia, the right to be and act stupid, the right to know, the value of financial assets, Wally Broecker, zero carbonThe UNFCCC’s COP21 concluded goals which aimed for limiting global warming to C, and certainly keeping it below C, both measured with respect to pre-industrial temperatures. Bad news. According to the United States National Center for Atmospheric Research (“NCAR”), in cooperation with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (“UCAR”), we are already at C. The…
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Massachusetts Solar Suburbs (a Google group)
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in adaptation, Anthropocene, Carbon Tax, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, destructive economic development, diffusion, diffusion processes, economics, education, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, engineering, environment, ethics, fear uncertainty and doubt, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, global warming, Google, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, MA, meteorology, microgrids, optimization, physics, planning, politics, public utility commissions, rationality, reasonableness, risk, Sankey diagram, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, sustainability, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power, zero carbonI have just created the Massachusetts Solar Suburbs Google group. It’s Welcome Message reads: Welcome to the Massachusetts Solar Suburbs! This group exists to provide a forum for owners of solar installations, typically residential, or serving residences, to share their experiences, compare notes, and work together to advance adoption of solar energy in the suburbs…
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climate impacts upon corporate supply chains
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in adaptation, Anthropocene, chance, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, compassion, COP21, corporate litigation on damage from fossil fuel emissions, corporate supply chains, economics, evidence, forecasting, games of chance, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, investing, meteorology, optimization, planning, risk, Sankey diagram, science, sustainabilityhttp://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/advisory/consulting/risk/resilience/publications/business-not-as-usual.html https://www.aig.com/Chartis/internet/US/en/TheVulnerabilityofGlobalSupplyChains_tcm3171-663222.pdf http://phys.org/news/2014-02-quantifying-global-chain-due-climate.html http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2014/06/27/address-climate-risks-supply-chain
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Same Old, Same Old (“I’m your puppet”)
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in Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate zombies, denial, environment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, obfuscating data, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, zero carbon -
How fossil fuels “help the poor” in developing nations, like Nigeria
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in Anthropocene, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, disingenuity, economics, energy reduction, Exxon, fear uncertainty and doubt, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, microgrids, natural gas, obfuscating data, pipelines, rationality, reasonableness, risk, selfishness, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power, zero carbon(From The Atlantic.) CAPTION (Credit– The Atlantic): A man working at an illegal oil-refinery site pours oil under a locally made burner to keep the fire going, near River Nun in Nigeria’s oil state of Bayelsa on November 27, 2012. Thousands of people in Nigeria engage in a practice known locally as “oil bunkering”—hacking into…
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Is Earth Much More Sensitive to CO2 Than Thought?
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in Anthropocene, Carbon Cycle, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, environment, fossil fuels, generalized linear models, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, Principles of Planetary Climate, risk, science“Take notice that carbon dioxide 50 million years ago may not have been as high as we once thought it was. We may reach that level in the next century, and so the climate change from that increase could be pretty severe, pretty dramatic. CO2 and other climate forcings may be more important for global…
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“It’s real. There’s nothing we can do about it.”
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in Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, environment, geophysics, global warming, greenhouse gases, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, Svante Arrhenius, the right to know -
“Climate Science, 50 years later”
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in Anthropocene, astronomy, astrophysics, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, environment, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, meteorology, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, Svante Arrhenius, zero carbonHat tip to Peter Sinclair who let us all know about this symposium on his blog. The link is supposed to start at Dr John Holdren’s talk, but in case it does not, his talk begins at 35:00 into the video. Dr Holdren’s slides are also available: Holdren’sTalk_2015-10-29_aaas-carnegie_50th_anniv
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Only One Word: EVIL
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in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate change, climate disruption, climate justice, consumption, COP21, corruption, denial, disingenuity, energy, Exxon, fear uncertainty and doubt, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, obfuscating data, perceptions, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, temporal myopia(There is an update and analysis of Exxon’s reaction to the subpoena issued it by New York State towards the bottom of this post. Click this link.) Exxon in recent days has vehemently denied it had any campaign to discredit climate science and, presumably, to derail movements and measures to get greenhouse gas emissions under…
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What the future of energy everywhere looks like
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in adaptation, Anthropocene, capricious gods, chance, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, dynamical systems, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, engineering, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, living shorelines, mesh models, meteorology, microgrids, mitigation, obfuscating data, oceanography, physical materialism, physics, pipelines, planning, politics, prediction, probabilistic programming, public utility commissions, PUCs, quantum, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, Sankey diagram, science, sea level rise, selfishness, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Spaceship Earth, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, Svante Arrhenius, taxes, temporal myopia, the right to know, the value of financial assets, transparency, UU Humanists, WHOI, wind energy, wind power, zero carbonWhat will the energy landscape look like after utility companies are either dead, dying, or revert to a tiny portion of their territory? Silicon Valley CCE Partnership gives us all a clue. It’s been described in the San Francisco Chronicle, and is ideal for many residents of all incomes and credit histories.
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Irrelevant power utilities
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in bridge to nowhere, chance, clean disruption, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, ignorance, investment in wind and solar energy, mathematics, microgrids, optimization, physics, planning, public utility commissions, PUCs, rationality, reasonableness, risk, selfishness, solar power, SolarPV.tv, Spaceship Earth, sustainability, Tea Party, the right to know, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, wind energy, wind power, zero carbonIrrelevant. Power utilities and fossil fuel companies are the walking dead, because they simply cannot compete in a free market with solar installations and locally installed and used wind, even without subsidies. And, they are trying to use regulations and legalities which take the right away from homeowners and small towns to provide energy for…
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The Koch brothers are afraid, very afraid … and should be
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in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, Cape Wind, carbon dioxide, citizenship, clean disruption, climate justice, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, denial, ecology, economics, efficiency, energy, energy utilities, environment, Exxon, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, obfuscating data, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, selfishness, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, sustainability, the right to know, the value of financial assets, Tony Seba, transparency, wind power, zero carbonAnd, accordingly, the Koch brothers are turning their attention to spreading misinformation about solar power, through their Taxpayers Protection Alliance, which is publishing silly stuff in things like a report, Filling the Solar Sinkhole. See the link, from the Solar Energy Industry Association for what and why, including the exaggerated amounts of “subsidies”. Fossil fuels…
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Climate Disruption and Carbon Taxes: That ‘outlandish lefty plot’
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in adaptation, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, COP21, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, ecology, energy utilities, engineering, environment, Exxon, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, meteorology, mitigation, oceanography, physics, planning, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, zero carbonUh, in case the climate science deniers carbon worshipers of the world haven’t noticed, there’s an open letter out, directed to the UNFCCC. It says, in part: We recognize the rising environmental, social, economic, and security risks posed by climate change, and that delaying action will result in greater risks and costs. An effective response…
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New Study Projects That Melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves Will Intensify
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in Anthropocene, capricious gods, carbon dioxide, civilization, climate, climate disruption, ecology, exponential growth, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, icesheets, James Hansen, meteorology, NASA, NOAA, oceanography, physics, prediction, risk, science, sea level rise, sustainability, temporal myopia, WAIS, WHOINew research published today projects a doubling of surface melting of Antarctic ice shelves by 2050 and by 2100 may surpass intensities associated with ice shelf collapse, if greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel consumption continues at the present rate. Ice shelves are the floating extensions of the continent’s massive land-based ice sheets. While the…
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“Ultimately the public will understand that they were being lied to, betrayed”
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in adaptation, Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Worshipers, citizenship, climate, climate change, climate disruption, denial, disingenuity, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, geophysics, global warming, ignorance, meteorology, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, selfishness, statistics, Tamino, temporal myopia, the right to know, UU Humanists, zero carbonProfessor Michael Mann: … [W]e will look back with revulsion at those who did the bidding of the fossil fuel industry to try to confuse the public about the reality of this problem. The problem is we don’t have that much time. We can’t wait decades to be able to look back and retrospect and…
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How nice it is that Nature and probability bend to developers whims!
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in capricious gods, chance, citizenship, climate data, conservation, denial, ecology, engineering, environment, ethics, games of chance, ignorance, living shorelines, mathematics, meteorology, obfuscating data, planning, politics, precipitation, prediction, probability, rationality, reasonableness, risk, spatial statistics, University Station, WestwoodAs I have mentioned before, it’s so nice that Nature and probability bend to the whims of property developers and their Town Fathers, with the willing participation of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). If you had property at risk near waters or wetlands, wouldn’t you like it if FEMA just happened to redraw the…
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“Too late to prevent climate change: Here’s how we adapt” (Alice Bows-Larkin)
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in adaptation, Anthropocene, astrophysics, bridge to nowhere, capricious gods, carbon dioxide, chance, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, ecology, economics, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, mathematics, maths, meteorology, mitigation, oceanography, physics, planning, prediction, probability, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, statistics, sustainability, zero carbonHere’s how we adapt.
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Risks and Carney at LLoyd’s: Climate change is a ‘tragedy of the horizons’
Carney mentions three channels for climate change to affect financial stability. Physical risks, or impacts today on insurance liabilities, and value of financial assets. Liability risks, or risks that could arise tomorrow, should those harmed by the effects of climate change seek compensation from those responsibility. Transition risks, such as “jump to distress pricing”, due…
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Ahmed: arrested for having electronics in his possession simpler than a smart phone
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in astronomy, astrophysics, atheism, Bill Nye, Boston Ethical Society, Carl Sagan, citizenship, civilization, Dan Satterfield, disingenuity, education, engineering, ethics, humanism, ignorance, physical materialism, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, Susan Jacoby, the right to know, Unitarian Universalism, UU HumanistsI have made my comments at The Times news article on the subject. If I, as a youngster, brought my Newtonian telescope lens-in-progress into school, and because it looked like it was wrapped in putty, would I, in this day, be arrested as a possible distributer of bomb material? And as for the much made…
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Exxon knew, in detail
The Exxon Corporation (XOM) turned its back on its own evidence-based, scientific culture when it came to climate change. It’s a very sad story. There are now more parts available. (The above letter is reproduced from The New York Times Dot-Earth blog which covers the same story, but then wanders off challenging the motivation and…
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No turning back: On the effectiveness of artificially removing emitted CO2 from atmosphere for remediating climate disruption
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in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, denial, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuels, games of chance, geoengineering, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, James Hansen, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, scientific publishing, sea level rise, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, thermodynamics, zero carbonA new paper, by Tokarska and Zickfeld, just published in the Institute Of Physics (“IOP”) Environmental Research Letters examines the question of what happens to climate change and disruption should, at some time, we collectively decide it’s too bad and deploy, at huge expense, a system of removing CO2 from atmosphere to, say, get it…
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Foul concerns (UPDATE: 14th September 2015)
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in Anthropocene, bifurcations, Boston, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, economics, efficiency, EIA, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, engineering, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, fracking, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, methane, microgrids, mitigation, natural gas, pipelines, planning, politics, public utility commissions, PUCs, rationality, reasonableness, risk, solar energy, solar power, SolarPV.tv, sustainability, temporal myopia, Tony Seba, Westwood, wind power, zero carbonUpdated, 14th September 2015 I submitted a Letter to the Editor of The Westwood Press last week, one which was published in Friday’s paper edition. It did not/has not yet made it online. It was in response to an article by Brad Cole which appeared in their 4th September 2015 edition. The letter is reproduced…
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Bob Inglis: “Energy optimists. Climate realists.”
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in Anthropocene, atheism, bifurcations, Bill Nye, bridge to nowhere, capricious gods, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate change, climate disruption, compassion, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, ecology, economics, education, energy reduction, energy utilities, environment, ethics, finance, fossil fuel divestment, global warming, humanism, Hyper Anthropocene, ignorance, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, meteorology, new forms of scientific peer review, NOAA, oceanography, physical materialism, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, sociology, statistics, sustainability, Tea Party, UU HumanistsKudos. http://climateeye.republicen.org/ http://blog.republicen.org/ http://republicen.org/areyouen/ http://republicen.org/the-solution-element/ http://republicen.org/the-solution-element/realist-guide/ I’m not, by their definition anyway, a conservative. In fact, I’m pretty apolitical these days although I will do things like demonstrate. But it’s completely clear to me this problem isn’t going to get solved without people of all political stripes chipping in and helping out, and to push…
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Questions About El Nino Answered – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere
Source: Questions About El Nino Answered – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere
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“Natural Gas Pipeline Replacement Programs Reduce Methane Leaks and Improve Consumer Safety”
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in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, citizenship, climate, climate change, climate disruption, consumption, economics, energy utilities, environment, fossil fuels, fracking, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, investing, methane, mitigation, natural gas, pipelines, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, sociology, spatial statistics, the right to knowUpdate, 2018-11-19 Pipeline replacements, yes, assuming they are done correctly. Otherwise, strand them. See “NTSB faults NiSource for deadly Massachusetts gas explosions“. NiSource is the parent company of Columbia Gas of Massachusetts. Here are the NTSB recommendations and report. Natural Gas Pipeline Replacement Programs Reduce Methane Leaks and Improve Consumer Safety Morgan E. Gallagher†‡, Adrian…
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Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Balance (from SCAR report)
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in Antarctica, Anthropocene, bifurcations, carbon dioxide, Cauchy distribution, climate, climate change, climate disruption, environment, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, James Hansen, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, sustainability, WHOIThis is from the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (“SCAR”) Annual Report 2014-2015, Bulletin No. 191, August 2015. Ice Sheet Mass Balance The floating ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic Ice Sheet restrain the grounded icesheet flow. Thinning of an ice shelf reduces this effect, leading to an increase in ice discharge to the ocean. Using…
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“Ignorance is not a cultural identity to celebrate. “
From meteorologist Dr Dan Satterfield, from his blog post, “The Real Reason U.S. SAT Test Scores Keep Dropping“: Far too many Americans just don’t think education is important. They may claim they do, but when a state gives 250 million dollars to a basketball team to build a stadium, while its cuts education by 300…
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Solar array with cloud predicting technology launched in WA
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in adaptation, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, dynamic linear models, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, energy utilities, engineering, environment, ethics, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, investment in wind and solar energy, Kalman filter, mathematics, maths, meteorology, microgrids, mitigation, NCAR, numerical software, optimization, physics, prediction, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, solar power, stochastics, sustainability, time seriesAustralia’s first grid-connected solar power project with cloud predicting technology launched at Karratha Airport, WA, in bid to smooth solar supply. Source: Solar array with cloud predicting technology launched in WA