Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- "The Expert"
- Karl Broman
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Risk and Well-Being
- Mertonian norms
- Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model Five Thirty Eight’s take on why pandemic modeling is so difficult
- Slice Sampling
- Awkward Botany
- Earth Family Alpha Michael Osborne’s blog (former Executive at Austin Energy, now Chairman of the Electric Utility Commission for Austin, Texas)
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- "Consider a Flat Pond" Invited talk introducing systems thinking, by Jan Galkowski, at First Parish in Needham, UU, via Zoom
- South Shore Recycling Cooperative Materials management, technical assistance and networking, town advocacy, public outreach
- Musings on Quantitative Paleoecology Quantitative methods and palaeoenvironments.
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- Rasmus Bååth's Research Blog Bayesian statistics and data analysis
- Peter Congdon's Bayesian statistical modeling Peter Congdon’s collection of links pertaining to his several books on Bayesian modeling
- What If
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- BioPython A collection of Python tools for quantitative Biology
- Professor David Draper
- Number Cruncher Politics
- Gavin Simpson
- Logistic curves in market disruption From DollarsPerBBL, about logistic or S-curves as models of product take-up rather than exponentials, with notes on EVs
- Charlie Kufs' "Stats With Cats" blog “You took Statistics 101. Now what?”
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- Quotes by Nikola Tesla Quotes by Nikola Tesla, including some of others he greatly liked.
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Label Noise
- Comprehensive Guide to Bayes Rule
- Dominic Cummings blog Chief advisor to the PM, United Kingdom
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Team Andrew Weinberg Walking September 8th for the Jimmy Fund!
- Dr James Spall's SPSA
- Thaddeus Stevens quotes As I get older, I admire this guy more and more
- All about models
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- Gabriel's staircase
climate change
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Agendaists Eli Rabett’s coining of a phrase
- Simple box models and climate forcing IMO one of Tamino’s best posts illustrating climate forcing using simple box models
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Model state level energy policy for New Englad Bob Massie’s proposed energy policy for Massachusetts, an admirable model for energy policy anywhere in New England
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Reanalyses.org
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Ricky Rood's “What would happen to climate if we (suddenly) stopped emitting GHGs today?
- Climate Change Reports By John and Mel Harte
- Risk and Well-Being
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- "Getting to the Energy Future We Want," Dr Steven Chu
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- Rabett Run Incisive analysis of climate science versus deliberate distraction
- Dessler's 6 minute Greenhouse Effect video
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Tuft's Professor Kenneth Lang on the physical chemistry of the Greenhouse Effect
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 1 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. In two parts.
- Simple models of climate change
- Climate model projections versus observations
- On Thomas Edison and Solar Electric Power
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- "Mighty Microgrids" Webinar This is a Webinar on YouTube about Microgrids from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR), featuring New York State and Minnesota
- Tell Utilities Solar Won't Be Killed Barry Goldwater, Jr’s campaign to push for solar expansion against monopolistic utilities, as a Republican
- Social Cost of Carbon
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Sea Change Boston
- Wally Broecker on climate realism
- MIT's Climate Primer
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index report The annual assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the radiative forcing from constituent atmospheric greenhouse gases
- David Appell's early climate science
- Skeptical Science
- `Who to believe on climate change': Simple checks By Bart Verheggen
- Anti—Anti-#ClimateEmergency Whether to declare a climate emergency is debatable. But some critics have gone way overboard.
- Climate impacts on retail and supply chains
- Jacobson WWS literature index
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- “The discovery of global warming'' (American Institute of Physics)
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: differential equations
California solar users already affecting per-residence rates of non-solar utility customers
Lead article in the San Francisco Chronicle today addresses how non-solar customers of Pacific Gas & Electric are already carrying a larger burden of the network costs for that utility, costs which are reflected in their rates. This is the … Continue reading
Posted in bifurcations, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, destructive economic development, differential equations, dynamical systems, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, environment, exponential growth, finance, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, global warming, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, maths, microgrids, natural gas, pipelines, politics, rationality, reasonableness, solar power, statistics, temporal myopia, Tony Seba, wind power, zero carbon
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New Paper Shows Global Climate Model Errors are Significantly Less Than Thought (Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal)
New Paper Shows Global Climate Model Errors are Significantly Less Than Thought – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere. The paper is here, unfortunately behind a paywall. I wonder if they looked at the temperature distributions’ second moments? … Continue reading
Posted in Arctic, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, differential equations, diffusion processes, ensembles, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, HadCRUT4, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, physics, prediction, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, Tamino, time series
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Hansen et al.
Tamino weighs in on the Hyper-Anthropocene paper by Hansen, Sato, et al, references in my postings here as https://667-per-cm.net/2015/07/23/welcome-to-the-hyper-anthropocene/ and https://667-per-cm.net/2015/07/27/professor-james-hansen-responds-and-explains/ Update, 18th October 2015 To quote Eli Rabett of Rabett Run, EliRabett said… Evidently today the editor has decided … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, Antarctica, Anthropocene, Arctic, astrophysics, bifurcations, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Cauchy distribution, chance, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate zombies, COP21, denial, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, economics, environment, ethics, floods, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, James Hansen, mathematics, maths, meteorology, nor'easters, oceanography, physics, politics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, sea level rise, statistics, Student t distribution, Tamino, temporal myopia, the right to know, transparency, UNFCCC, zero carbon
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Thank You
And thanks, Tamino!
Posted in astrophysics, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, ensembles, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, new forms of scientific peer review, open data, open source scientific software, physics, probabilistic programming, probability, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, Tamino, the right to know, time series, transparency
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Sea Surface Anomalies
(Hat tip to Susan Stone.) The graphic below shows sea surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1971-2000 baseline First data are courtesy of the Climate Reanalyzer, a joint project of the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine, and … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ecology, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, MCMC, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, time series, transparency
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“Regulating Government”, from Overcoming Bias
Regulating Government. This post is about governments — with the advice of big banks — gaming pension accounts so they appear more solvent than they are.
“Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky” – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal
Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.
The CWSLab workflow tool: an experiment in community code development
Posted in climate, climate education, climate models, computation, differential equations, dynamical systems, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, oceanography, open source scientific software, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, Python 3, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, state-space models, statistics, time series, transparency
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“Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming”
Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Ray Pierrehumbert, and Dorian Abbot have a new paper out in Geophysical Research Letters which is pretty exciting, at least for me, having to do with both climate and dynamical systems. They are far from the only ones … Continue reading
Posted in bifurcations, Cauchy distribution, chance, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, science
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Warming is proportional to CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS, not emission intensity
Highlighting the key parts of the Abstract of this very important paper below: The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response1. These approaches, however, do not … Continue reading
Posted in astrophysics, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate education, consumption, differential equations, ecology, engineering, environment, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, reasonableness, risk, science
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Richard Muller: “I Was Wrong On Global Warming, But It Didn’t Convince The ‘Sceptics'”
Update. 26th February 2015 This is not directly related to the BEST project described in the YouTube video above, but the Berkeley National Laboratory has experimentally linked increases in radiative forcing with increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 due to … Continue reading
Posted in astrophysics, Bayes, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, differential equations, ecology, environment, geoengineering, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, population biology, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, the right to know
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Models don’t over-estimate warming?
At the reblogged article, I made reference to both a recommendation by Judith Curry for an article in Physics Today by Ray Pierrehumbert on infrared radiation and the original article. That article is available online. More is available in Professor … Continue reading
Posted in astrophysics, carbon dioxide, chemistry, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, differential equations, diffusion processes, ecology, education, energy, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, statistics, the right to know
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engineering and understanding with stable models
Stable distributions or Lévy -stable models is a class of probability distributions which contains the Gaussian, the Cauchy (or Lorentz), and the Lévy distribution. They are parameterized by an which is . Values of of 1 or less give distributions … Continue reading
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate education, differential equations, diffusion processes, ecology, economics, forecasting, geophysics, information theoretic statistics, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, stochastic search, the right to know
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The designers of our climate
The blog … And Then There’s Physics wades deeply into the recent Monckton-Soon-Legates-Briggs paper. And, they conclude, what it is saying is that, conditional upon no feedbacks, equilibrium climate sensitivity (“ECS”) needs to be small. Except that they don’t say … Continue reading
Posted in astrophysics, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, carbon dioxide sequestration, Carbon Tax, Carl Sagan, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, differential equations, ecology, economics, engineering, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geoengineering, geophysics, humanism, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, methane, NASA, NCAR, Neill deGrasse Tyson, NOAA, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, politics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, probabilistic programming, R, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, scientific publishing, sociology, solar power, statistics, testing, the right to know
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“Atmospheric lifetime of fossil fuel carbon dioxide” (2009)
These basic facts do not appear to be widely known, so it’s a good thing this classic paper is now available in a new, easily accessible form. David Archer, Michael Eby, Victor Brovkin, Andy Ridgwell, Long Cao, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Ken … Continue reading
Posted in astrophysics, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, carbon dioxide sequestration, Carbon Tax, chemistry, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate education, conservation, consumption, demand-side solutions, differential equations, ecology, economics, education, energy, energy reduction, engineering, environment, fossil fuel divestment, geoengineering, geophysics, IPCC, meteorology, methane, natural gas, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education
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struggling with problems already partly solved by others
Climate modelers and models see as their frontier the problem of dealing with spontaneous dynamics in systems such as atmosphere or ocean which are not directly forced by boundary conditions such as radiative forcing due to increased greenhouse gas (“GHG”) … Continue reading
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, biology, climate, climate education, differential equations, ecology, engineering, environment, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, population biology, probabilistic programming, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search
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Understanding mechanisms in climate over short periods and in local regions
This is interesting, because it shows how any particular observational history of Earth is one election of a large number of possible futures. This is exactly the same point made by Slava Kharin in his 2008 tutorial lecture “Statistical concepts … Continue reading
Posted in carbon dioxide, climate, climate education, differential equations, ecology, energy, environment, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, science, statistics, stochastic algorithms
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“Can we trust climate models?”
J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan, “Can we trust climate models?”, WIREs Climate Change 2014, 5:435–440. doi: 10.1002/wcc.288. See also D. A. Stainforth, T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Faull, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. … Continue reading
Climate Variability Diagnostics Package
NCAR’s CVDP, just written up in AGU’s EOS. The purpose, and links. The talk. Nicely done test engineering effort.
Posted in climate, differential equations, engineering, environment, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, physics, science, statistics, testing
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El Nino, the scientific story (by Daniel Gross)
A scientific detective story. El Niño. How in the world did they figure that out? “Fishing in pink waters: How scientists unraveled the El Niño mystery“. By Daniel Gross. Hat tip to Greg Laden.
Ray Pierrehumbert on the new U.S.-China climate deal
Professor Pierrehumbert offers his thoughts in Slate. He’s the author of Principles of Planetary Climate which is, as far as I’m concerned, the definitive climate book.
Posted in astronomy, astrophysics, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Carbon Tax, chemistry, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate education, conservation, consumption, demand-side solutions, differential equations, ecology, economics, education, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, engineering, environment, forecasting, geoengineering, geophysics, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, methane, NCA, NOAA, oceanography, physics, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, scientific publishing, solar power, statistics, wind power
Tagged climate book
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Brian Hayes on clear climate models for the curious public
American Scientst has a nice article by Brian Hayes recounting the basic physics of climate, and then recommending both public engagement with clear, simple climate models, at least by the curious and scientifically literate, and the development of models which … Continue reading
Posted in astrophysics, carbon dioxide, Carl Sagan, cat1, citizen science, civilization, climate, climate education, conservation, consumption, differential equations, education, energy, environment, forecasting, geophysics, mathematics, maths, meteorology, oceanography, physics, reasonableness, risk, science, scientific publishing, statistics
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Dan Satterfield on Why and How Weather and Climate Models Work
See http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2014/08/10/weather-climate-models-work-meteorologists-learn-calculus/. 50 minute summary lecture there, by Professor Margot Gerritsen, embedded below, if you really want to know why and how. You, of course, don’t need to know. But, then, don’t criticize climate models, because you’ll be doing it … Continue reading
Why small effects can make BIG changes. Science rules, as Bill Nye says.
This is why small effects in the climate system can have BIG consequences. Even if the percentage change of CO2 due to human effects as a proportion of total atmospheric mass is very small, the consequences can, be, well, of … Continue reading
MITx: 12.340x: Global Warming Science | edX
MITx: 12.340x: Global Warming Science | edX. Updated. 31st March 2014. Great interview and Q&A with Professor Professor Christopher Knittel of MIT on “Climate Change Policy that Makes Economic Sense“.
“On the Lyapunov function for complex-balanced mass-action systems”
“On the Lyapunov function for complex-balanced mass-action systems” Hat tip to the Azimuth Project and thanks to Manoj Gopalkrishnan for this interesting article.
A trivariate, coupled dynamical system, and hints for using the carbon cycle to explain glacial-interglacial periods
I’m reading K. Soetaert, J. Cash, F. Mazzia, Solving Differential Equations in R. I know Professor Soetaert’s work, from the text co-authored with P. M. J. Herman, A Practical Guide to Ecological Modelling, and the several R packages he has contributed with others. … Continue reading
ecoquant
