Distributed Solar: The Democratizaton of Energy
Blogroll
- Hermann Scheer Hermann Scheer was a visionary, a major guy, who thought deep thoughts about energy, and its implications for humanity’s relationship with physical reality
- All about Sankey diagrams
- Simon Wood's must-read paper on dynamic modeling of complex systems I highlighted Professor Wood’s paper in https://hypergeometric.wordpress.com/2014/12/26/struggling-with-problems-already-attacked/
- Professor David Draper
- Giant vertical monopolies for energy have stopped making sense
- John Kruschke's "Dong Bayesian data analysis" blog Expanding and enhancing John’s book of same title (now in second edition!)
- Ted Dunning
- ggplot2 and ggfortify Plotting State Space Time Series with ggplot2 and ggfortify
- Mark Berliner's video lecture "Bayesian mechanistic-statistical modeling with examples in geophysical settings"
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION Cathy O’Neil’s WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION,
- International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)
- All about ENSO, and lunar tides (Paul Pukite) Historically, ENSO has been explained in terms of winds. But recently — and Dr Paul Pukite has insisted upon this for a long time — the oscillation of ENSO has been explained as a large-scale slosh due to lunar tidal forcing.
- American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
- Higgs from AIR describing NAO and EA Stephanie Higgs from AIR Worldwide gives a nice description of NAO and EA in the context of discussing “The Geographic Impact of Climate Signals on European Winter Storms”
- "The Expert"
- Prediction vs Forecasting: Knaub “Unfortunately, ‘prediction,’ such as used in model-based survey estimation, is a term that is often subsumed under the term ‘forecasting,’ but here we show why it is important not to confuse these two terms.”
- Healthy Home Healthy Planet
- WEAPONS OF MATH DESTRUCTION, reviews Reviews of Cathy O’Neil’s new book
- Harvard's Project Implicit
- Earth Family Beta MIchael Osborne’s blog on Science and the like
- Mrooijer's Numbers R 4Us
- Leadership lessons from Lao Tzu
- Risk and Well-Being
- Brendon Brewer on Overfitting Important and insightful presentation by Brendon Brewer on overfitting
- AP Statistics: Sampling, by Michael Porinchak Twin City Schools
- Bob Altemeyer on authoritarianism (via Dan Satterfield) The science behind the GOP civil war
- Fear and Loathing in Data Science Cory Lesmeister’s savage journey to the heart of Big Data
- James' Empty Blog
- The Mermaid's Tale A conversation about biological complexity and evolution, and the societal aspects of science
- Beautiful Weeds of New York City
- The Plastic Pick-Up: Discovering new sources of marine plastic pollution
- Brian McGill's Dynamic Ecology blog Quantitative biology with pithy insights regarding applications of statistical methods
- Label Noise
- Dollars per BBL: Energy in Transition
- "Talking Politics" podcast David Runciman, Helen Thompson
- Flettner Rotor Bruce Yeany introduces the Flettner Rotor and related science
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation
- Tony Seba Solar energy, electric vehicle, energy storage, and business disruption professor and visionary
- In Monte Carlo We Trust The statistics blog of Matt Asher, actually called the “Probability and Statistics Blog”, but his subtitle is much more appealing. Asher has a Manifesto at http://www.statisticsblog.com/manifesto/.
- Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard on how businesses can help our collective environmental mess Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard set the standard for how a business can mitigate the ravages of capitalism on earth’s environment. At 81 years old, he’s just getting started.
- Karl Broman
- John Cook's reasons to use Bayesian inference
- Awkward Botany
- Why "naive Bayes" is not Bayesian Explains why the so-called “naive Bayes” classifier is not Bayesian. The setup is okay, but estimating probabilities by doing relative frequencies instead of using Dirichlet conjugate priors or integration strays from The Path.
- Pat's blog While it is described as “The mathematical (and other) thoughts of a (now retired) math teacher”, this is false humility, as it chronicles the present and past life and times of mathematicians in their context. Recommended.
- Tim Harford's “More or Less'' Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
- Nadler Strategy, LLC, on sustainability Thinking about business, efficient and effective management, and business value
- The Keeling Curve: its history History of the Keeling Curve and Charles David Keeling
- All about models
- The Alliance for Securing Democracy dashboard
climate change
- Andy Zucker's "Climate Change and Psychology"
- SOLAR PRODUCTION at Westwood Statistical Studios Generation charts for our home in Westwood, MA
- The HUMAN-caused greenhouse effect, in under 5 minutes, by Bill Nye
- HotWhopper: It's excellent. Global warming and climate change. Eavesdropping on the deniosphere, its weird pseudo-science and crazy conspiracy whoppers.
- All Models Are Wrong Dr Tamsin Edwards blog about uncertainty in science, and climate science
- "When Did Global Warming Stop" Doc Snow’s treatment of the denier claim that there’s been no warming for the most recent N years. (See http://hubpages.com/@doc-snow for more on him.)
- Climate change: Evidence and causes A project of the UK Royal Society: (1) Answers to key questions, (2) evidence and causes, and (3) a short guide to climate science
- The great Michael Osborne's latest opinions Michael Osborne is a genius operative and champion of solar energy. I have learned never to disregard ANYTHING he says. He is mentor of Karl Ragabo, and the genius instigator of the Texas renewable energy miracle.
- The Green Plate Effect Eli Rabett’s “The Green Plate Effect”
- Sir David King David King’s perspective on climate, and the next thousands of years for humanity
- Social Cost of Carbon
- Exxon-Mobil statement on UNFCCC COP21
- Interview with Wally Broecker Interview with Wally Broecker
- Paul Beckwith Professor Beckwith is, in my book, one of the most insightful and analytical observers on climate I know. I highly recommend his blog, and his other informational products.
- Risk and Well-Being
- James Hansen and granddaughter Sophie on moving forward with progress on climate
- History of discovering Global Warming From the American Institute of Physics.
- "Impacts of Green New Deal energy plans on grid stability, costs, jobs, health, and climate in 143 countries" (Jacobson, Delucchi, Cameron, et al) Global warming, air pollution, and energy insecurity are three of the greatest problems facing humanity. To address these problems, we develop Green New Deal energy roadmaps for 143 countries.
- Équiterre Equiterre helps build a social movement by encouraging individuals, organizations and governments to make ecological and equitable choices, in a spirit of solidarity.
- Eli on the spectroscopic basis of atmospheric radiation physical chemistry
- David Appell's early climate science
- Tamino's Open Mind Open Mind: A statistical look at climate, its science, and at science denial
- weather blocking patterns
- `The unchained goddess' 1958 Bell Telephone Science Hour broadcast regarding, among other things, climate change.
- Climate Change: A health emergency … New England Journal of Medicine Caren G. Solomon, M.D., M.P.H., and Regina C. LaRocque, M.D., M.P.H., January 17, 2019 N Engl J Med 2019; 380:209-211 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp1817067
- The Keeling Curve The first, and one of the best programs for creating a spatially significant long term time series of atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Started amongst great obstacles by one, smart determined guy, Charles David Keeling.
- “Ways to [try to] slow the Solar Century''
- The Carbon Cycle The Carbon Cycle, monitored by The Carbon Project
- Warming slowdown discussion
- Ice and Snow
- Klaus Lackner (ASU), Silicon Kingdom Holdings (SKH) Capturing CO2 from air at scale
- "Betting strategies on fluctuations in the transient response of greenhouse warming" By Risbey, Lewandowsky, Hunter, Monselesan: Betting against climate change on durations of 15+ years is no longer a rational proposition.
- Thriving on Low Carbon
- ATTP summarizes all that stuff about Committed Warming from AND THEN THERE’S PHYSICS
- Climate Change Denying Organizations
- Nick Bower's "Scared Scientists"
- Updating the Climate Science: What path is the real world following? From Professors Makiko Sato & James Hansen of Columbia University
- Mrooijer's Global Temperature Explorer
- Simple models of climate change
- AIP's history of global warming science: impacts The American Institute of Physics has a fine history of the science of climate change. This link summarizes the history of impacts of climate change.
- "Climate science is setttled enough"
- Non-linear feedbacks in climate (discussion of Bloch-Johnson, Pierrehumbert, Abbot paper) Discussion of http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL064240/abstract
- "Warming Slowdown?" (part 2 of 2) The idea of a global warming slowdown or hiatus is critically examined, emphasizing the literature, the datasets, and means and methods for telling such. The second part.
- Earth System Models
- Wind sled Wind sled: A zero carbon way of exploring ice sheets
- CLIMATE ADAM Previously from the Science news staff at the podcast of Nature (“Nature Podcast”), the journal, now on YouTube, encouraging climate action through climate comedy.
- The net average effect of a warming climate is increased aridity (Professor Steven Sherwood)
- Solar Gardens Community Power
- SolarLove
- Mathematics and Climate Research Network The Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN) engages mathematicians to collaborating on the cryosphere, conceptual model validation, data assimilation, the electric grid, food systems, nonsmooth systems, paleoclimate, resilience, tipping points.
Archives
Jan Galkowski
Category Archives: maths
Thank You
And thanks, Tamino!
Posted in astrophysics, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, ensembles, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, new forms of scientific peer review, open data, open source scientific software, physics, probabilistic programming, probability, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, Tamino, the right to know, time series, transparency
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Professor James Hansen responds and explains:
The recent paper by Hansen, Soto, and others has caused a stir, as I suspect it was intended to do so. I posted about this paper earlier. Now Professor Hansen has responded to the critics of his team’s work and … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, arXiv, astrophysics, bifurcations, biology, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, COP21, denial, disingenuity, dynamical systems, ecology, education, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, James Hansen, maths, meteorology, NASA, NCAR, new forms of scientific peer review, NOAA, oceanography, open source scientific software, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, sea level rise, temporal myopia, the right to know, time series, WAIS, zero carbon
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Tea Party member Debbie Dooley on solar power (from The Guardian)
I support solar energy because of my Tea Party beliefs — not despite them (From Debbie Dooley, in an article at The Guardian, one of the 22 founding members of the Tea Party.) I am a lifelong conservative and, also, … Continue reading
Posted in bifurcations, carbon dioxide, citizenship, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, economics, efficiency, energy, ethics, finance, fossil fuels, global warming, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, maths, microgrids, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, solar power, statistics, Tea Party, time series, Tony Seba, wind power, zero carbon
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Links explaining climate change Kevin Jones liked
Kevin Jones asked me if I could put the links in a Comment on a post I made at Google+ in a collection or something for reference. I am therefore repeating the Comment with these details below. No one simple … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, astrophysics, bifurcations, biology, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, chance, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, climate zombies, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, dynamical systems, ecology, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, environment, exponential growth, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, history, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, living shorelines, mass extinctions, mass transit, mathematics, maths, meteorology, methane, microgrids, model comparison, NASA, natural gas, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, politics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, sociology, solar power, statistics, temporal myopia, the right to know, Tony Seba, WHOI, wind power, zero carbon
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disruption to global electricity production during the next 25 years
I am a huge fan of Tony Seba’s writings and work, primarily because I am an engineer, and I simply cannot accept that the situation with the impending climate catastrophe is hopeless. Engineers are eternal optimists. Not everyone will be … Continue reading
Posted in adaptation, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, dynamical systems, economics, energy, engineering, environment, ethics, exponential growth, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, fracking, global warming, history, investment in wind and solar energy, mathematics, maths, methane, microgrids, natural gas, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, sociology, solar power, statistics, stochastics, sustainability, taxes, the right to know, Tony Seba, transparency, wind power, zero carbon
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‘Weather by Icon’ Is A Bad Way To Get an Accurate Forecast – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere
'Weather by Icon' Is A Bad Way To Get an Accurate Forecast – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.
Desperate for a “Pause”
About more Denier cherry-picking.
Posted in climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, climate zombies, environment, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, obfuscating data, open data, physics, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, science, science education, statistics, time series, Uncategorized
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Why decentralized electrical power has to win, no matter what Elon Musk says, and utilities are doomed
Posted in bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, compassion, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ecology, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, engineering, environment, ethics, exponential growth, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, global warming, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, living shorelines, mass transit, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, microgrids, natural gas, NCAR, NOAA, nor'easters, obfuscating data, oceanography, open data, optimization, physics, politics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, scientific publishing, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, solar power, state-space models, statistics, temporal myopia, testing, the right to know, time series, wind power, zero carbon
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“NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’” (from Gavin at REALCLIMATE)
NOAA temperature record updates and the ‘hiatus’. No doubt there’ll be, as Dr Schmidt says, a howl of protests that the data are “being manipulated”. There’s more discussion by Professor Mann. But, more to the point, it looks like we’re … Continue reading
Posted in chance, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, energy, ensembles, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, spatial statistics, statistics, stochastics, temporal myopia, time series
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“Storm-proven forecasting gets yearlong trial”
Storm-studying scientists have made their next-generation forecasting system available online so the wider weather community can put it to the test. After using the real-time system during short-lived field research campaigns, developers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) … Continue reading
On the Climate Club
But if the other advanced nations had a stick — a tariff of 4 percent on the imports from countries not in the “climate club” — the cost-benefit calculation for the United States would flip. Not participating in the club … Continue reading
Posted in citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, ecology, economics, education, environment, ethics, geophysics, global warming, humanism, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, open data, open source scientific software, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sociology, state-space models, statistics, stochastic search, stochastics, sustainability, temporal myopia, time series, transparency, Unitarian Universalism, UU Humanists, wind power, zero carbon
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The CWSLab workflow tool: an experiment in community code development
Posted in climate, climate education, climate models, computation, differential equations, dynamical systems, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, oceanography, open source scientific software, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, Python 3, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, state-space models, statistics, time series, transparency
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“Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming”
Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Ray Pierrehumbert, and Dorian Abbot have a new paper out in Geophysical Research Letters which is pretty exciting, at least for me, having to do with both climate and dynamical systems. They are far from the only ones … Continue reading
Posted in bifurcations, Cauchy distribution, chance, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, science
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“Response” (to “…I would be interested to see how one can prove from such varying data that the warming has accelerated over time”), by Tamino
Denialist tripe, swatted by Tamino. Now, I know I am learning via the Denial101x course by John Cook (and many others) that the reason why Deniers are Deniers is because the notion of global warming itself challenges their values or … Continue reading
Posted in anemic data, Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, chance, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, denial, ecology, education, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, maths, obfuscating data, open data, physics, politics, rationality, science, science education, sea level rise, statistics, sustainability, time series
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“Cauchy Distribution: Evil or Angel?” (from Xian)
Cauchy Distribution: Evil or Angel?. From Professor Christian Robert.
Jeff’s lecture in Banff (update)
Updated, 2015-09-29 Jeff is now an NSF Postdoctoral Fellow in the Mathematics Department at Stanford University. My son, Jeff, is graduating this month from the University of California, Berkeley, with a doctorate in Mathematics. His thesis title is “Distribution of … Continue reading
Posted in mathematics, maths, physics, proud dad, Stanford University
Tagged stanford university
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Stone STOCHASTICITY Project
(Click on image for a larger one.) See the write-up for details.
“… the most patronizing start to an answer I have ever received …”
Professor Christian Robert tries to help out a student of MCMC on Cross Validated and earns the comment that his help had “the most patronizing start to an answer I have ever received“. I learned a new term: primitivus petitor.
Oklahoma: Not OK
Funny how convenient it is to paint over inconvenient truths. Yo Tamino!
Posted in bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, citizen science, citizenship, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate education, education, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fracking, geophysics, maths, natural gas, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, statistics, time series
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Earth Day, my hope
Posted in carbon dioxide, Carl Sagan, Charles Darwin, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate education, compassion, conservation, Darwin Day, demand-side solutions, ecology, economics, education, efficiency, energy reduction, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, history, humanism, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, politics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, privacy, probit regression, R, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, scientific publishing, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sociology, the right to know, Unitarian Universalism, UU Humanists, WHOI, wind power
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Scary Stuff; a Potential Nasty Surprise
If it were to come true, Wally Broecker would earn yet another, deserved scientific accolade: The Great Ocean Conveyor. More from WHOI here. “The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks,” said Dr. Wallace … Continue reading
Posted in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, Carl Sagan, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, ecology, education, engineering, environment, forecasting, games of chance, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NOAA, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, science education, sea level rise, sociology, statistics
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“Unbiased Bayes for Big Data: Path of partial posteriors” (Christian Robert)
Unbiased Bayes for Big Data: Path of partial posteriors.
Dynamic Linear Models package, dlmodeler
I’m checking out the dlmodeler package in R for a work project. It is accompanied by textbooks, G. Petris, S. Petrone, P. Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with R, Springer, 2009 and J. Durbin, S. J. Koopman, Time Series Analysis by … Continue reading
“Big Data is the new Phrenology”
From mathbabe: Big Data is the new phrenology. Excerpt: Here’s the thing. What we’ve got is a new kind of awful pseudo-science, which replaces measurements of skulls with big data. There’s no reason to think this stuff is any less … Continue reading
Posted in anemic data, Bayes, Bayesian, bridge to nowhere, mathematics, maths, rationality, reasonableness, statistics
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Christian Robert on the amazing Gibbs sampler
Professor Christian Robert remarks on the amazing Gibbs sampler. Implicitly he’s also underscoring the power of properly done Bayesian computational analysis. For here we have a problem with a posterior distribution having two strong modes, so a point estimate, like … Continue reading
Warming is proportional to CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS, not emission intensity
Highlighting the key parts of the Abstract of this very important paper below: The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response1. These approaches, however, do not … Continue reading
Posted in astrophysics, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate education, consumption, differential equations, ecology, engineering, environment, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, reasonableness, risk, science
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Christian Robert on Alan Turing
Alan Turing Institute. See Professor Robert’s earlier post on Turing, too.
Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, citizenship, education, ethics, history, humanism, mathematics, maths, politics, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, the right to know, Wordpress
Tagged Alan Turing
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Richard Muller: “I Was Wrong On Global Warming, But It Didn’t Convince The ‘Sceptics'”
Update. 26th February 2015 This is not directly related to the BEST project described in the YouTube video above, but the Berkeley National Laboratory has experimentally linked increases in radiative forcing with increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 due to … Continue reading
Posted in astrophysics, Bayes, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, differential equations, ecology, environment, geoengineering, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, population biology, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, the right to know
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engineering and understanding with stable models
Stable distributions or Lévy -stable models is a class of probability distributions which contains the Gaussian, the Cauchy (or Lorentz), and the Lévy distribution. They are parameterized by an which is . Values of of 1 or less give distributions … Continue reading
Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate education, differential equations, diffusion processes, ecology, economics, forecasting, geophysics, information theoretic statistics, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, stochastic search, the right to know
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David Suzuki on the 59th minute and exponential growth
Posted in astronomy, astrophysics, biology, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Carl Sagan, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, demand-side solutions, ecology, economics, engineering, environment, ethics, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sociology, statistics
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ecoquant
