Category Archives: mathematics

“Where most of us live (with apologies to southern-hemisphere readers)” [reblog of Tamino]

Love the comparison with Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures.

Posted in Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, denial, ecology, education, environment, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NOAA, open data, physics, prediction, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, statistics, Tamino, time series, Uncategorized, Wordpress | Leave a comment

Comprehensive and compact tutorial on Petris’ DLM package in R; with an update about Helske’s KFAS

A blogger named Lalas produced on Quantitative Thoughts a very comprehensive and compact tutorial on the R package dlm by Petris. I use dlm a lot. Unfortunately, Lalas does not give details on how the SVD is used. They do … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, dynamic linear models, dynamical systems, forecasting, Kalman filter, mathematics, maths, multivariate statistics, numerical software, open source scientific software, prediction, R, Rauch-Tung-Striebel, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, SVD, time series | 1 Comment

WHT’s “Climate Sensitivity and the 33C Discrepancy”

I happened across a blog post (from 2013) by the mysterious blogger known as WHT (*) titled “Climate Sensitivity and the 33C Discrepancy“. If I could, I’d reblog it here, but their blogging site is not WordPress-friendly. WHT is now … Continue reading →

Posted in astrophysics, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate models, dynamical systems, ENSO, environment, forecasting, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, mathematics, maths, meteorology, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, WHT | 1 Comment

Hansen et al.

Tamino weighs in on the Hyper-Anthropocene paper by Hansen, Sato, et al, references in my postings here as https://667-per-cm.net/2015/07/23/welcome-to-the-hyper-anthropocene/ and https://667-per-cm.net/2015/07/27/professor-james-hansen-responds-and-explains/ Update, 18th October 2015 To quote Eli Rabett of Rabett Run, EliRabett said… Evidently today the editor has decided … Continue reading →

Posted in adaptation, Antarctica, Anthropocene, Arctic, astrophysics, bifurcations, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Cauchy distribution, chance, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate zombies, COP21, denial, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, economics, environment, ethics, floods, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, James Hansen, mathematics, maths, meteorology, nor'easters, oceanography, physics, politics, probability, rationality, reasonableness, science, sea level rise, statistics, Student t distribution, Tamino, temporal myopia, the right to know, transparency, UNFCCC, zero carbon | Leave a comment

CO2 experiment: fooling with Earth

Professor Richard D Schwartz wrote, in 2012, a nice article succinctly summarizing the scientific basis for climate change and global warming. Called “An astrophysicist looks at global warming”, he pithily summarized: “Greenhouse gas” warming occurs because the collisional de-excitation time … Continue reading →

Posted in Anthropocene, astrophysics, bifurcations, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, chance, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, forecasting, fossil fuels, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, ignorance, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, science education, temporal myopia, the right to know | Leave a comment

Thank You

And thanks, Tamino!

Posted in astrophysics, citizen science, climate change, climate data, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, ensembles, forecasting, games of chance, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, new forms of scientific peer review, open data, open source scientific software, physics, probabilistic programming, probability, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, spatial statistics, statistics, Tamino, the right to know, time series, transparency | Leave a comment

Sea Surface Anomalies

(Hat tip to Susan Stone.) The graphic below shows sea surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1971-2000 baseline First data are courtesy of the Climate Reanalyzer, a joint project of the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Anthropocene, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, differential equations, diffusion processes, dynamical systems, ecology, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, Hyper Anthropocene, IPCC, mathematics, MCMC, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, statistics, sustainability, the right to know, time series, transparency | 1 Comment

“Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky” – Dan’s Wild Wild Science Journal

Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky – Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal – AGU Blogosphere.

Posted in chance, climate models, differential equations, dynamical systems, ensembles, ENSO, environment, forecasting, geophysics, history, mathematics, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, nor'easters, oceanography, physics, risk, science, statistics | Leave a comment

Links explaining climate change Kevin Jones liked

Kevin Jones asked me if I could put the links in a Comment on a post I made at Google+ in a collection or something for reference. I am therefore repeating the Comment with these details below. No one simple … Continue reading →

Posted in Anthropocene, astrophysics, bifurcations, biology, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, chance, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, climate zombies, conservation, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, demand-side solutions, dynamical systems, ecology, economics, efficiency, energy, energy reduction, environment, exponential growth, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, geophysics, global warming, history, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, living shorelines, mass extinctions, mass transit, mathematics, maths, meteorology, methane, microgrids, model comparison, NASA, natural gas, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, politics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, science education, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sea level rise, sociology, solar power, statistics, temporal myopia, the right to know, Tony Seba, WHOI, wind power, zero carbon | Leave a comment

disruption to global electricity production during the next 25 years

I am a huge fan of Tony Seba’s writings and work, primarily because I am an engineer, and I simply cannot accept that the situation with the impending climate catastrophe is hopeless. Engineers are eternal optimists. Not everyone will be … Continue reading →

Posted in adaptation, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, citizenship, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate disruption, consumption, decentralized electric power generation, decentralized energy, dynamical systems, economics, energy, engineering, environment, ethics, exponential growth, fossil fuel divestment, fossil fuels, fracking, global warming, history, investment in wind and solar energy, mathematics, maths, methane, microgrids, natural gas, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, sociology, solar power, statistics, stochastics, sustainability, taxes, the right to know, Tony Seba, transparency, wind power, zero carbon | 6 Comments

Desperate for a “Pause”

About more Denier cherry-picking.

Posted in climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, climate models, climate zombies, environment, geophysics, global warming, hiatus, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, obfuscating data, open data, physics, rationality, reasonableness, reproducible research, science, science education, statistics, time series, Uncategorized | 1 Comment

On the Climate Club

But if the other advanced nations had a stick — a tariff of 4 percent on the imports from countries not in the “climate club” — the cost-benefit calculation for the United States would flip. Not participating in the club … Continue reading →

Posted in citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, ecology, economics, education, environment, ethics, geophysics, global warming, humanism, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, open data, open source scientific software, politics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sociology, state-space models, statistics, stochastic search, stochastics, sustainability, temporal myopia, time series, transparency, Unitarian Universalism, UU Humanists, wind power, zero carbon | 2 Comments

The CWSLab workflow tool: an experiment in community code development

Posted in climate, climate education, climate models, computation, differential equations, dynamical systems, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NCAR, oceanography, open source scientific software, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, Python 3, rationality, reasonableness, science, science education, state-space models, statistics, time series, transparency | Leave a comment

“Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming”

Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Ray Pierrehumbert, and Dorian Abbot have a new paper out in Geophysical Research Letters which is pretty exciting, at least for me, having to do with both climate and dynamical systems. They are far from the only ones … Continue reading →

Posted in bifurcations, Cauchy distribution, chance, climate, climate change, climate disruption, climate education, differential equations, dynamical systems, ecology, environment, forecasting, geophysics, global warming, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, science | Leave a comment

“Cauchy Distribution: Evil or Angel?” (from Xian)

Cauchy Distribution: Evil or Angel?. From Professor Christian Robert.

Posted in arXiv, Bayes, Bayesian, Cauchy distribution, information theoretic statistics, mathematics, maths, optimization, probabilistic programming, probability, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastics, Student t distribution | Leave a comment

Jeff’s lecture in Banff (update)

Updated, 2015-09-29 Jeff is now an NSF Postdoctoral Fellow in the Mathematics Department at Stanford University. My son, Jeff, is graduating this month from the University of California, Berkeley, with a doctorate in Mathematics. His thesis title is “Distribution of … Continue reading →

Posted in mathematics, maths, physics, proud dad, Stanford University | Tagged | 3 Comments

“… the most patronizing start to an answer I have ever received …”

Professor Christian Robert tries to help out a student of MCMC on Cross Validated and earns the comment that his help had “the most patronizing start to an answer I have ever received“. I learned a new term: primitivus petitor.

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, MCMC, optimization, reasonableness, statistics, stochastic algorithms | Leave a comment

Earth Day, my hope

Posted in carbon dioxide, Carl Sagan, Charles Darwin, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, clean disruption, climate, climate change, climate education, compassion, conservation, Darwin Day, demand-side solutions, ecology, economics, education, efficiency, energy reduction, environment, ethics, forecasting, fossil fuel divestment, geophysics, history, humanism, investing, investment in wind and solar energy, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, open data, open source scientific software, physics, politics, population biology, Principles of Planetary Climate, privacy, probit regression, R, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, scientific publishing, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, sociology, the right to know, Unitarian Universalism, UU Humanists, WHOI, wind power | Leave a comment

Scary Stuff; a Potential Nasty Surprise

If it were to come true, Wally Broecker would earn yet another, deserved scientific accolade: The Great Ocean Conveyor. More from WHOI here. “The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks,” said Dr. Wallace … Continue reading →

Posted in Anthropocene, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, Carbon Tax, Carl Sagan, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, ecology, education, engineering, environment, forecasting, games of chance, mathematics, maths, meteorology, NOAA, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, science education, sea level rise, sociology, statistics | Leave a comment

“Unbiased Bayes for Big Data: Path of partial posteriors” (Christian Robert)

Unbiased Bayes for Big Data: Path of partial posteriors.

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayes, Bayesian, mathematics, maths, MCMC, optimization, probabilistic programming, statistics, stochastic algorithms | Leave a comment

Dynamic Linear Models package, dlmodeler

I’m checking out the dlmodeler package in R for a work project. It is accompanied by textbooks, G. Petris, S. Petrone, P. Campagnoli, Dynamic Linear Models with R, Springer, 2009 and J. Durbin, S. J. Koopman, Time Series Analysis by … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian, geophysics, mathematics, maths, oceanography, open source scientific software, Python 3, R, science, sea level rise, state-space models, statistics, stochastic algorithms, time series | Leave a comment

Bayesian change-point analysis for global temperatures, 1850-2010

Professor Peter Congdon reports on two Bayesian models for global temperature shifts in his textbook, Applied Bayesian Modelling, as “Example 6.12: Global temperatures, 1850-2010”, on pages 252-253. A direct link is available online. The first is apparently original with Congdon, … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, BUGS, climate, climate change, environment, forecasting, information theoretic statistics, mathematics, MCMC, meteorology, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, stochastic algorithms, Uncategorized | 1 Comment

“Big Data is the new Phrenology”

From mathbabe: Big Data is the new phrenology. Excerpt: Here’s the thing. What we’ve got is a new kind of awful pseudo-science, which replaces measurements of skulls with big data. There’s no reason to think this stuff is any less … Continue reading →

Posted in anemic data, Bayes, Bayesian, bridge to nowhere, mathematics, maths, rationality, reasonableness, statistics | Leave a comment

Christian Robert on the amazing Gibbs sampler

Professor Christian Robert remarks on the amazing Gibbs sampler. Implicitly he’s also underscoring the power of properly done Bayesian computational analysis. For here we have a problem with a posterior distribution having two strong modes, so a point estimate, like … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, BUGS, Gibbs Sampling, JAGS, mathematics, maths, MCMC, probabilistic programming, rationality, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search | Leave a comment

Warming is proportional to CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS, not emission intensity

Highlighting the key parts of the Abstract of this very important paper below: The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response1. These approaches, however, do not … Continue reading →

Posted in astrophysics, carbon dioxide, climate, climate change, climate education, consumption, differential equations, ecology, engineering, environment, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, reasonableness, risk, science | 1 Comment

Christian Robert on Alan Turing

Alan Turing Institute. See Professor Robert’s earlier post on Turing, too.

Posted in Bayes, Bayesian, citizenship, education, ethics, history, humanism, mathematics, maths, politics, rationality, reasonableness, statistics, stochastic algorithms, stochastic search, the right to know, Wordpress | Tagged | Leave a comment

Richard Muller: “I Was Wrong On Global Warming, But It Didn’t Convince The ‘Sceptics'”

Update. 26th February 2015 This is not directly related to the BEST project described in the YouTube video above, but the Berkeley National Laboratory has experimentally linked increases in radiative forcing with increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 due to … Continue reading →

Posted in astrophysics, Bayes, carbon dioxide, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, differential equations, ecology, environment, geoengineering, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, population biology, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, reproducible research, risk, science, science education, sea level rise, the right to know | Leave a comment

Models don’t over-estimate warming?

At the reblogged article, I made reference to both a recommendation by Judith Curry for an article in Physics Today by Ray Pierrehumbert on infrared radiation and the original article. That article is available online. More is available in Professor … Continue reading →

Posted in astrophysics, carbon dioxide, chemistry, citizen science, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, differential equations, diffusion processes, ecology, education, energy, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, meteorology, model comparison, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, oceanography, physics, Principles of Planetary Climate, rationality, Ray Pierrehumbert, reasonableness, science, statistics, the right to know | 2 Comments

engineering and understanding with stable models

Stable distributions or Lévy -stable models is a class of probability distributions which contains the Gaussian, the Cauchy (or Lorentz), and the Lévy distribution. They are parameterized by an which is . Values of of 1 or less give distributions … Continue reading →

Posted in approximate Bayesian computation, Bayesian, citizen science, climate, climate change, climate education, differential equations, diffusion processes, ecology, economics, forecasting, geophysics, information theoretic statistics, IPCC, mathematics, mathematics education, maths, meteorology, model comparison, NOAA, oceanography, physics, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, stochastic search, the right to know | Leave a comment

David Suzuki on the 59th minute and exponential growth

Posted in astronomy, astrophysics, biology, bridge to nowhere, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide capture, Carl Sagan, citizenship, civilization, climate, climate change, climate education, demand-side solutions, ecology, economics, engineering, environment, ethics, forecasting, geophysics, IPCC, mathematics, maths, meteorology, physics, population biology, rationality, reasonableness, risk, science, science education, sociology, statistics | 3 Comments